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Live prediction market odds for CA-38 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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CA-38 primary: Who will advance?

2026-06-02

Best price · tap to trade

Pedro Antonio Casas93¢1.08xKalshiMonica Sánchez16¢6.25xKalshiErik Lutz8¢12.50xKalshi
Compare all 4 outcomes across 3 venues

About This Market

Traders give Pedro Antonio Casas about a 88.8% chance. Monica Sánchez follows at 9.8%, Erik Lutz follows at 4.7%, and Hilda Solis follows at 51.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 95.8 percentage points.

Traders give Pedro Antonio Casas about a 88.8% chance. Monica Sánchez follows at 9.8%, Erik Lutz follows at 4.7%, and Hilda Solis follows at 51.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 95.8 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the CA-38 primary to determine which candidates will advance. This primary is crucial as it will shape the political landscape in California and influence the broader electoral strategies for the upcoming general election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
PredictItPredictIt
Best price
PA
Pedro Antonio Casas
89%
Kalshi93¢
Polymarket93¢
—
Kalshi1.08x93¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
91.2%88¢93¢7¢12¢
PolymarketPolymarket
86.5%80¢93¢7¢20¢
MS
Monica Sánchez
10%
Kalshi16¢
Polymarket14¢
—
Kalshi6.25x16¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
11.0%10¢16¢84¢90¢
PolymarketPolymarket
8.5%3¢14¢86¢97¢
EL
Erik Lutz
5%
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket2¢
PredictIt99¢
Kalshi12.50x8¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
8.0%2¢8¢92¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.3%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PredictItPredictIt
50.0%2¢99¢1¢98¢
HS
Hilda SolisARB
51%
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket6¢
PredictIt99¢
Kalshi1.01x100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
99.3%93¢100¢1¢7¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.5%1¢6¢94¢99¢
PredictItPredictIt
50.0%2¢99¢1¢98¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Monica Sánchez

Monica Sánchez is a member of the Pico Rivera City Council and a candidate for California's 38th congressional district. She has served as a councilmember since 2019 and is currently the mayor pro tem of Pico Rivera. Sánchez has led initiatives to stabilize mobile home rents, approve affordable housing developments, and expand transportation options in her community.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread95.8%
Platforms3
Candidates4
Leader

Pedro Antonio Casas

88.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-38 primary: Who will advance?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Pedro Casas advances in the 2026 CA-38 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the CA-38 primary?

The CA-38 primary is significant as it determines which candidates will represent their party in the general election. The outcome can influence party dynamics and voter turnout in California.

How do prediction markets work for this primary?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about which candidates are likely to advance.

What factors influence the odds in the CA-38 primary markets?

Odds in the CA-38 primary markets are influenced by polling data, candidate fundraising, endorsements, and campaign strategies. Changes in public sentiment and media coverage can also impact market dynamics.

What does the CA-38 primary: Who will advance prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-38 primary: Who will advance odds?

The latest available prices are Pedro Antonio Casas: 91.2¢ on Kalshi, 86.5¢ on Polymarket; Monica Sánchez: 11.0¢ on Kalshi, 8.5¢ on Polymarket; Erik Lutz: 8.0¢ on Kalshi, 1.3¢ on Polymarket, 50.0¢ on PredictIt; Hilda Solis: 99.3¢ on Kalshi, 3.5¢ on Polymarket, 50.0¢ on PredictIt. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Lutz Falls to 16% in CA-38: Can Vote-Splitting Deliver Second Place?Lutz dropped 10 points in three days as Casas holds 71% and Solis nears certainty. A three-way Democratic split remains his only path.May 27, 2026