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Live prediction market odds for CA-45 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CA-45 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Derek Tran (D)95¢1.05xPolymarket USChuong Vo (R)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Derek Tran (D) about a 93.9% chance. Chuong Vo (R) follows at 7.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.8 percentage points.

Traders give Derek Tran (D) about a 93.9% chance. Chuong Vo (R) follows at 7.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.8 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-45 House race in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the state.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
DT
Derek Tran (D)
94%
Kalshi96¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket93¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
94.8%92¢96¢4¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.0%91¢93¢7¢9¢
CV
Chuong Vo (R)
7%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket8¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
7.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.0%6¢8¢92¢94¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Derek Tran (D)

Derek Tran is the U.S. Representative for California's 45th Congressional District. He won the seat in 2024, defeating incumbent Michelle Steel. Tran is the first Vietnamese American to represent California in Congress.

About Chuong Vo (R)

Chuong Vo is a Republican candidate for California's 45th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House election. He served on the Cerritos City Council from 2020 to 2025, including a term as mayor from 2022 to 2023, and retired after approximately 28 years with the Torrance Police Department. Vo's extensive experience in local governance and law enforcement underscores his commitment to public safety and community service.

Smart Trade Router

$
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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.8%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Derek Tran (D)

93.9% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-45 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-45 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Republican, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-45 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-45 House race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout. Additionally, local and national political trends can significantly impact the race.

How do prediction markets determine the winner of the CA-45 House race?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of the outcome. Prices reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of each candidate winning.

What is the significance of the CA-45 House race in the 2026 elections?

The CA-45 House race is significant as it could determine control of the House of Representatives. Outcomes in this district may also signal broader trends in voter preferences and party strength leading into future elections.

What does the CA-45 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-45 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Derek Tran (D): 94.8¢ on Kalshi, 93.0¢ on Polymarket, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Chuong Vo (R): 7.0¢ on Kalshi, 7.0¢ on Polymarket, 7.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Tran's CA-45 Win Odds Fall to 82% as R+3 Lean Weighs on GeneralBettors cut Tran from 90% to 82% over three days despite his 53.8% primary win; Cook rates CA-45 'Lean D,' not safe.Jul 24, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

CA-45 primary: Who will advance?WONPre-event: 96%

Prediction Market Track Record

CA-45 primary: Who will advance?WONPre-event: 62%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

CA-45 primary: Who will advance?

Resolved

2026-06-02

WONChuong Vo (R)
Pre-event: 62%