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Live prediction market odds for CA-45 primary: Who will advance?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi

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Kalshi / Polymarket

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CA-45 primary: Who will advance?

2026-06-02

Best price · tap to trade

Chuong Vo61¢1.64xKalshiTom Vo27¢3.70xKalshiMark Leonard6¢16.67xKalshi
Compare all 6 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Chuong Vo about a 61.5% chance. Tom Vo follows at 55.3%, Mark Leonard follows at 51.0%, and Chi Charlie Nguyen follows at 22.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 98.9 percentage points.

Traders give Chuong Vo about a 61.5% chance. Tom Vo follows at 55.3%, Mark Leonard follows at 51.0%, and Chi Charlie Nguyen follows at 22.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 98.9 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the CA-45 primary to determine which candidates will advance. This primary is crucial as it shapes the electoral landscape for the upcoming general election, influencing party dynamics and voter engagement in the region.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
CV
Chuong Vo
62%
Kalshi61¢
Polymarket82¢
Kalshi1.64x61¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
60.0%59¢61¢39¢41¢
PolymarketPolymarket
63.0%36¢82¢18¢64¢
TV
Tom VoARB
55%
Kalshi27¢
Polymarket91¢
Kalshi3.70x27¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
26.0%20¢27¢73¢80¢
PolymarketPolymarket
84.5%78¢91¢9¢22¢
ML
Mark LeonardARB
51%
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket98¢
Kalshi16.67x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.0%96¢98¢2¢4¢
CC
Chi Charlie Nguyen
22%
Kalshi25¢
Polymarket29¢
Kalshi4.00x25¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
24.0%18¢25¢75¢82¢
PolymarketPolymarket
20.0%11¢29¢71¢89¢
AP
Amy Phan West
2%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket1¢
Kalshi21.28x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.5%0¢5¢95¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.3%0¢1¢100¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Tom Vo

Tom Vo is a Republican candidate for California's 45th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election. He has a background in real estate and has opened multiple taekwondo studios in Southern California. His experience in business and community engagement positions him as a contender in this race.

About Mark Leonard

Mark Leonard is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in California's 45th Congressional District. He has raised over $25,000 for his campaign as of March 31, 2026. Leonard's candidacy is significant due to his active participation in the upcoming primary election.

About Chi Charlie Nguyen

Chi Charlie Nguyen is the current Mayor of Westminster, California, and a Republican candidate for California's 45th congressional district. He previously served on the Midway City Sanitary District Board of Directors and the Westminster City Council. Nguyen's extensive experience in local government and community leadership positions him as a significant contender in the upcoming congressional primary.

About Amy Phan West

Amy Phan West is a member of the Westminster City Council, representing District 1 since November 2022. She previously ran for Congress in California's 47th district in 2020 and 2022. Her experience in local government and previous congressional campaigns make her a notable candidate in the CA-45 primary.

About Derek Tran

Derek Tran is the U.S. Representative for California's 45th Congressional District, serving his first term in Congress. He previously founded and led the Tran Firm, a law practice focusing on personal injury and employment law. His extensive experience in law and public service, including roles on the House Armed Services and Small Business Committees, underscores his qualifications for this position.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread98.9%
Platforms2
Candidates6
Leader

Chuong Vo

61.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-45 primary: Who will advance?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Chi Charlie Nguyen advances in the 2026 CA-45 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the advancing candidates. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the CA-45 primary?

The CA-45 primary is a key event in the electoral calendar, determining which candidates will represent their parties in the general election. The outcomes can significantly impact party strategies and voter turnout.

How do prediction markets influence perceptions of candidates?

Prediction markets aggregate the collective insights of participants, reflecting real-time sentiment about candidates' chances. This can influence public perception and campaign strategies as candidates adjust to shifting odds.

What factors can affect the odds in the CA-45 primary markets?

Odds can be influenced by various factors including polling data, candidate debates, fundraising efforts, and endorsements. As these elements evolve, they can lead to significant shifts in market predictions.

What does the CA-45 primary: Who will advance prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-45 primary: Who will advance odds?

The latest available prices are Chuong Vo: 60.0¢ on Kalshi, 63.0¢ on Polymarket; Tom Vo: 26.0¢ on Kalshi, 84.5¢ on Polymarket; Mark Leonard: 5.0¢ on Kalshi, 97.0¢ on Polymarket; Chi Charlie Nguyen: 24.0¢ on Kalshi, 20.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

DCCC Attack Backfires? Chuong Vo Hits 64% in CA-45 Primary MarketDespite trailing two GOP rivals in fundraising, Vo leads the Republican field at 64% on both Kalshi and Polymarket ahead of the June 2 vote.May 30, 2026Tom Vo Falls to 22% to Advance CA-45 Primary Despite Top GOP SpendingVo holds $81K cash on hand after spending $454K of $534K raised. Charlie Nguyen sits on $397K with June 2 closing fast.May 21, 2026
No price history available