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Live prediction market odds for CA-46 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CA-46 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Lou Correa (D)98¢1.02xKalshiDavid Pan (R)6¢16.67xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Lou Correa (D) about a 94.5% chance. David Pan (R) follows at 5.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Traders give Lou Correa (D) about a 94.5% chance. David Pan (R) follows at 5.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-46 House race set for November 3, 2026. This election will play a crucial role in determining party control in the House of Representatives, influencing legislative agendas and national policies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
LC
Lou Correa (D)
95%
Kalshi98¢
—
Polymarket96¢
Kalshi1.02x98¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.0%93¢98¢2¢7¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.0%94¢96¢4¢6¢
DP
David Pan (R)
5%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US6¢
Polymarket5¢
Polymarket US16.67x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
6.8%2¢7¢93¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
5.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.9%3¢5¢95¢97¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Lou Correa (D)

Lou Correa is the U.S. Representative for California's 46th Congressional District. He previously served in the California State Senate from 2006 to 2014. His extensive experience in state and federal government positions him as a seasoned legislator.

About David Pan (R)

David Tse-Chien Pan is a Professor of German at the University of California, Irvine. He previously served on the U.S. Commission on Unalienable Rights. He is a Republican candidate for U.S. Representative of California's 46th Congressional District.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Lou Correa (D)

94.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-46 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-46 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-46 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-46 House race?

Polling data, candidate fundraising, and local issues can significantly affect the odds. Additionally, national political trends and voter turnout projections play a critical role.

How does the CA-46 House race impact national politics?

The outcome of this race could shift the balance of power in the House of Representatives. A change in control may lead to different legislative priorities and governance strategies.

What is the timeline for the CA-46 House race?

The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with campaigns ramping up in the months leading to the election. Key events such as debates and endorsements will shape the political landscape leading up to the vote.

What does the CA-46 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-46 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Lou Correa (D): 93.0¢ on Kalshi, 96.0¢ on Polymarket; David Pan (R): 6.8¢ on Kalshi, 3.9¢ on Polymarket, 5.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Trader up $131K lifetime bet $1.5K on No at 95¢

3d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the CA-46 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →