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Live prediction market odds for CA-47 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CA-47 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Dave Min (D)95¢1.05xPolymarket USJenny Le Roux (R)3¢33.33xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Dave Min (D) about a 94.8% chance. Jenny Le Roux (R) follows at 4.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.4 percentage points.

Traders give Dave Min (D) about a 94.8% chance. Jenny Le Roux (R) follows at 4.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.4 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-47 House race scheduled for November 3, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence party control in Congress and shape legislative agendas in the coming years.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
DM
Dave Min (D)
95%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket95¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.0%94¢98¢2¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
JL
Jenny Le Roux (R)
4%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US3¢
Polymarket5¢
Polymarket US33.33x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
6.4%2¢7¢93¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
2.0%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.5%4¢5¢95¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Dave Min (D)

Dave Min is the U.S. representative for California's 47th congressional district, serving since January 3, 2025. He previously represented the 37th district in the California State Senate from 2020 to 2024. Min has a strong track record in environmental policy, having authored legislation to ban offshore oil drilling and to conserve 30% of lands and waters by 2030.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.4%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Dave Min (D)

94.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-47 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-47 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-47 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds in the CA-47 House race?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, national political climate and local issues can sway public opinion.

How do prediction markets work for elections like CA-47?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.

Why is the CA-47 House race significant?

The CA-47 race is significant as it may determine which party gains a seat in the House of Representatives. This could impact legislative priorities and the overall balance of power in Congress.

What does the CA-47 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-47 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Dave Min (D): 96.0¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Jenny Le Roux (R): 6.4¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket, 2.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

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Trader up $116K lifetime bet $1.7K on No at 95¢

6d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the CA-47 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →