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Live prediction market odds for CA-48 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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CA-48 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Marni von Wilpert (D)90¢1.11xPolymarket USJim Desmond (R)10¢10.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Marni von Wilpert (D) about a 90.0% chance. Jim Desmond (R) follows at 10.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.6 percentage points.

Traders give Marni von Wilpert (D) about a 90.0% chance. Jim Desmond (R) follows at 10.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.6 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-48 House race scheduled for November 3, 2026. This election will be pivotal in determining party control in Congress, influenced by local issues and national political trends.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
MV
Marni von Wilpert (D)
90%
Kalshi92¢
Polymarket US90¢
Polymarket90¢
Polymarket US1.11x90¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
91.4%90¢92¢8¢10¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
89.0%89¢90¢10¢11¢
PolymarketPolymarket
89.5%89¢90¢10¢11¢
JD
Jim Desmond (R)ARB
10%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket US13¢
Polymarket11¢
Kalshi10.00x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.9%7¢10¢90¢93¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
12.5%12¢13¢87¢88¢
PolymarketPolymarket
10.5%10¢11¢89¢90¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Marni von Wilpert (D)

Marni von Wilpert is a member of the San Diego City Council representing District 5. She previously served as Deputy City Attorney in the San Diego City Attorney's Office from 2018 to 2020. She is a candidate for California's 48th congressional district in the 2026 election.

About Jim Desmond (R)

Jim Desmond is a Republican politician serving as a member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors since 2019, representing the fifth district. He previously served as mayor of San Marcos, California, from 2006 to 2018. Desmond has announced his candidacy for California's 48th Congressional District in the 2026 election, following the retirement of incumbent Darrell Issa, who endorsed him as his successor.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.6%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Marni von Wilpert (D)

90.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-48 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-48 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-48 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-48 House race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and voter turnout. Local issues and national political climate also play significant roles.

When will the CA-48 House race take place?

The election for the CA-48 House seat is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle.

How do prediction markets work for elections like CA-48?

Prediction markets allow participants to bet on the outcomes of events, with odds reflecting collective expectations. Prices fluctuate based on new information and market sentiment.

What does the CA-48 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-48 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Marni von Wilpert (D): 91.4¢ on Kalshi, 89.5¢ on Polymarket, 89.0¢ on Polymarket US; Jim Desmond (R): 7.9¢ on Kalshi, 10.5¢ on Polymarket, 12.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

CA-48 Polls Show Tight Race Despite Democratic Special Election WinPrediction market odds for Democrats in CA-48 fell from 90% to 66% in three days after polling showed von Wilpert and Desmond in a near-tie for November 2026.Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying Marni von Wilpert (D)

Smart Money Consensus$178
$178Yes
Smart Traders Split1
1Yes
Polymarket USBuy Yes at 90¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Marni von Wilpert (D)
Yes$178 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will advance in the CA-48 primary?WONPre-event: 55%

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will advance in the CA-48 primary?WONPre-event: 99%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will advance in the CA-48 primary?

Resolved

2026-06-02

WONJim Desmond (R)
Pre-event: 99%