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Live prediction market odds for CA-50 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CA-50 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Scott Peters (D)97¢1.03xPolymarket USRepublican Party5¢20.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Scott Peters (D) about a 95.5% chance. Republican Party follows at 3.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Traders give Scott Peters (D) about a 95.5% chance. Republican Party follows at 3.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the CA-50 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties' strategies and voter mobilization efforts.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
SP
Scott Peters (D)
96%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US97¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.4%93¢98¢2¢7¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.0%96¢97¢3¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.2%95¢96¢4¢6¢
RP
Republican Party
4%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US5¢
Polymarket3¢
Polymarket US20.00x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.0%1¢7¢93¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
4.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.0%3¢3¢97¢97¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Scott Peters (D)

Scott H. Peters is the U.S. Representative for California's 50th Congressional District, serving since January 3, 2023. He previously represented the 52nd District from 2013 to 2023 and was President of the San Diego City Council from 2006 to 2008. Peters co-chairs the House Bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus, focusing on bipartisan climate change initiatives.

About Republican Party

Stephen Cohen is a faculty member in the Executive MBA/MS in Healthcare Leadership Program at Weill Cornell Medicine. He previously served as executive vice provost at Weill Cornell Medicine, overseeing finances and operations for nearly 9,000 staff members. His expertise in healthcare leadership and capital investment strategies makes him a valuable contributor to discussions on healthcare policy and management.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Scott Peters (D)

95.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-50 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-50 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-50 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-50 House winner?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, local issues and national political climate can sway public opinion.

How do prediction markets work for elections like CA-50?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.

Why is the CA-50 House race considered important?

The CA-50 House race is crucial as it may determine which party gains an additional seat in Congress. This could impact legislative priorities and the overall political landscape in the upcoming term.

What does the CA-50 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-50 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Scott Peters (D): 95.4¢ on Kalshi, 95.2¢ on Polymarket, 96.0¢ on Polymarket US; Republican Party: 4.0¢ on Kalshi, 3.0¢ on Polymarket, 4.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Trader up $131K lifetime bet $2.3K on No at 96¢

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PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the CA-50 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Prediction Market Track Record

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Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

2025 New Jersey Governor Election

Resolved

2025-11-04

LOSTRepublican Party
Pre-event: 15%

ME-02 House winner?

Resolved

2026-06-09

LOSTRepublican Party
Pre-event: 58%