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Live prediction market odds for CA-51 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CA-51 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Sara Jacobs (D)94¢1.06xPolymarket USRicardo Cabrera (R)6¢16.67xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Sara Jacobs (D) about a 94.7% chance. Ricardo Cabrera (R) follows at 4.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.9 percentage points.

Traders give Sara Jacobs (D) about a 94.7% chance. Ricardo Cabrera (R) follows at 4.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.9 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the race for the CA-51 House seat in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties' strategies and resources.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
SJ
Sara Jacobs (D)
95%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US94¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.06x94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.1%92¢98¢2¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.6%95¢96¢4¢5¢
RC
Ricardo Cabrera (R)ARB
4%
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket3¢
Kalshi18.18x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.5%1¢6¢95¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.1%1¢3¢97¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Sara Jacobs (D)

Sara Jacobs is the U.S. Representative for California's 51st Congressional District, serving since January 3, 2023. She previously represented the 53rd district from 2021 to 2023. Jacobs is a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and serves as the Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Africa.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.9%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Sara Jacobs (D)

94.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-51 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-51 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-51 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-51 House race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout projections. Additionally, local issues and national political trends can sway public opinion and affect market odds.

How does the CA-51 House race fit into the broader election landscape?

The CA-51 race is part of a larger electoral cycle that could determine control of the House of Representatives. Outcomes in competitive districts like CA-51 are critical for both parties aiming to secure a majority.

What role do prediction markets play in forecasting election outcomes?

Prediction markets aggregate the collective insights of participants, reflecting real-time sentiment about candidates and their chances. These markets can provide a unique perspective on potential election results based on current events and polling data.

What does the CA-51 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-51 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Sara Jacobs (D): 95.1¢ on Kalshi, 95.6¢ on Polymarket, 93.5¢ on Polymarket US; Ricardo Cabrera (R): 4.5¢ on Kalshi, 2.1¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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