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Live prediction market odds for CA-52 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CA-52 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Juan Vargas (D)95¢1.05xPolymarket USJeff Belle (R)4¢25.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Juan Vargas (D) about a 95.8% chance. Jeff Belle (R) follows at 3.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Juan Vargas (D) about a 95.8% chance. Jeff Belle (R) follows at 3.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CA-52 House race set for November 3, 2026. This election will play a crucial role in shaping the balance of power in Congress, influencing legislative priorities and party strategies leading into the 2028 elections.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JV
Juan Vargas (D)
96%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.5%95¢98¢2¢5¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.8%96¢96¢4¢4¢
JB
Jeff Belle (R)
3%
Kalshi6¢
Polymarket US4¢
Polymarket3¢
Polymarket US25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.6%2¢6¢94¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
3.0%3¢4¢96¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.0%1¢3¢97¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Juan Vargas (D)

Juan Vargas is the current U.S. Representative for California's 52nd Congressional District. He previously served as a State Senator and Assemblymember in California. His extensive legislative experience and current role in Congress make him a key figure in California politics.

About Jeff Belle (R)

Jeff Belle is a Republican candidate for California's 52nd Congressional District in the November 3, 2026, general election. He served in the U.S. Navy from 1978 to 1980 and has over 25 years of experience in consulting and private equity. Belle's campaign focuses on affordability, immigration reform, and addressing the Tijuana River sewage crisis.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Juan Vargas (D)

95.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CA-52 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CA-52 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Republican Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the CA-52 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CA-52 House race?

Odds are influenced by candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Local issues and national trends also play a significant role in shaping voter sentiment.

How does the CA-52 House election impact national politics?

The outcome could shift the balance of power in the House of Representatives. This can affect legislative agendas and the ability of the majority party to pass key initiatives.

When will the CA-52 House election take place?

The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle, where multiple federal and state offices are contested.

What does the CA-52 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CA-52 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Juan Vargas (D): 96.5¢ on Kalshi, 95.8¢ on Polymarket, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US; Jeff Belle (R): 4.6¢ on Kalshi, 2.0¢ on Polymarket, 3.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Vargas Slips to 88% in CA-52 Despite 22-to-1 Fundraising EdgeThe 8-point drop over three days traces to a single platform showing 79% while Polymarket holds at 96%, with no polling or scandal behind it.Sep 24, 2026Democrat Favored at 94% in CA-52 as GOP Challenger Has $40 LeftMarkets jumped 16 points in 3 days on a Republican who raised $275 total. Incumbent Vargas won CA-52 by 32 points in 2024.May 22, 2026