California governor primary margin of victory?
California governor primary margin of victory?
Live prediction market odds for California governor primary margin of victory?. Compare prices across .
Archived, venue decision pending Listed Updated
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
A venue decision has not been recorded.
Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Steve Hilton, ≥10% | No result |
Steve Hilton, 0-2% | No result |
Steve Hilton, 2-4% | No result |
Steve Hilton, 4-6% | No result |
Steve Hilton, 6-8% | No result |
Steve Hilton, 8-10% | No result |
Xavier Becerra, ≥10% | No result |
Xavier Becerra, 0-2% | No result |
Xavier Becerra, 2-4% | No result |
Xavier Becerra, 4-6% | No result |
Xavier Becerra, 6-8% | No result |
Xavier Becerra, 8-10% | No result |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary falls within 0% to 2%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Xavier Becerra minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Xavier Becerra if Xavier Becerra wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Xavier Becerra loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Xavier Becerra wins, or the electoral votes received by Xavier Becerra minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Xavier Becerra does not. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Xavier Becerra runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Xavier Becerra will be summed. If Xavier Becerra wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Xavier Becerra loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Xavier Becerra ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Xavier Becerra is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A cross-platform comparison needs available prices for the same outcome on at least two venues.
For example, a 40¢ price implies about a 40% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading. Historical prices alone do not identify the winning outcome.