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Live prediction market odds for Ceará gubernatorial election winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.

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Kalshi / Polymarket

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Ceará gubernatorial election winner?

2026-10-04

Best price · tap to trade

Elmano de Freitas65¢1.54xKalshiCiro Gomes38¢2.63xKalshiEduardo Girão2¢50.00xKalshi
Compare all 6 outcomes across 2 venues

About This Market

Traders give Elmano de Freitas about a 62.8% chance. Ciro Gomes follows at 36.0%, Eduardo Girão follows at 0.6%, and Camilo Santana follows at 0.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.9 percentage points.

Traders give Elmano de Freitas about a 62.8% chance. Ciro Gomes follows at 36.0%, Eduardo Girão follows at 0.6%, and Camilo Santana follows at 0.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.9 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Ceará gubernatorial election winner set for October 4, 2026. This election will determine the state's leadership, influencing local policies and governance in a region with diverse political dynamics and pressing social issues.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

2 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
ED
Elmano de Freitas
63%
Kalshi65¢
Polymarket64¢
Kalshi1.54x65¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
62.5%60¢65¢35¢40¢
PolymarketPolymarket
63.0%62¢64¢36¢38¢
CG
Ciro Gomes
36%
Kalshi38¢
Polymarket37¢
Kalshi2.63x38¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
36.0%34¢38¢62¢66¢
PolymarketPolymarket
36.0%35¢37¢63¢65¢
EG
Eduardo Girão
single venue1%
Kalshi2¢
—
Kalshi50.00x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢2¢98¢100¢
CS
Camilo Santana
—
—
Polymarket1000.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
CW
Capitão Wagner
—
—
Polymarket1000.00x0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Elmano de Freitas

Elmano de Freitas is the current Governor of Ceará, having assumed office on January 1, 2023. Prior to this, he served as a state deputy in Ceará's Legislative Assembly from 2015 to 2022. His extensive experience in state politics and leadership roles makes him a significant figure in Ceará's political landscape.

About Ciro Gomes

Ciro Gomes is a Brazilian politician and lawyer, currently serving as the president of the PSDB in Ceará. He previously served as Governor of Ceará from 1991 to 1994 and as Minister of National Integration from 2003 to 2006. His extensive political experience and leadership within the PSDB position him as a significant figure in the state's political landscape.

About Eduardo Girão

Eduardo Girão é senador pelo estado do Ceará, filiado ao Partido Novo. Antes de sua carreira política, atuou como empresário nos setores de hotelaria, transporte de valores e segurança privada. Sua experiência em gestão empresarial e seu histórico de atuação política o qualificam para cargos executivos no estado.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.9%
Platforms2
Candidates6
Leader

Elmano de Freitas

62.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Ceará gubernatorial election winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Elmano de Freitas wins the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Ceará gubernatorial election?

The Ceará gubernatorial election is crucial as it decides the state's executive leadership. The elected governor will influence key policies affecting education, health, and infrastructure in the region.

When is the Ceará gubernatorial election scheduled?

The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026. This date is significant for voters as it marks a pivotal moment for political change in Ceará.

How do prediction markets reflect public sentiment about the election?

Prediction markets aggregate bets and opinions, providing insights into public sentiment regarding potential candidates. Fluctuations in odds can indicate shifts in voter preferences and campaign dynamics leading up to the election.

What does the Ceará gubernatorial election winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Ceará gubernatorial election winner odds?

The latest available prices are Elmano de Freitas: 62.5¢ on Kalshi, 63.0¢ on Polymarket; Ciro Gomes: 36.0¢ on Kalshi, 36.0¢ on Polymarket; Eduardo Girão: 1.0¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket; Camilo Santana: 0.1¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Markets Price Elmano at 61% While Datafolha Shows a Dead HeatElmano's win probability jumped 8 points in three days despite a statistical tie in Datafolha. Two of three recent polls show him leading by 7 points.Sep 28, 2026Elmano Jumps to 56% After Polls Cut Ciro's 19-Point Lead to 5Three Sept. 18 polls erased Ciro's August lead. Markets price Elmano at 56%, yet every published runoff simulation still gives Ciro a 48–45 edge.Sep 26, 2026Ciro Gomes Falls to Underdog as Ceará Poll Shows Dead HeatAn Atlas/Focus survey (Sept. 21) erased Ciro's five-point August lead, putting both candidates at ~48%. Markets moved 14 points in three days.Sep 24, 2026Elmano Cuts Ciro's Ceará Lead From 19 to 5 Points in Five WeeksThree Sept. 18 polls show Elmano at 40-42%, up from 33% in August. Ciro's market odds fell from 63% to 52% in three days.Sep 21, 2026
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Trader up $269K lifetime bet $552 on Yes at 63¢

1d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $267K lifetime bet $869 on Yes at 61¢

2d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $276K lifetime sold $753 of Yes at 43¢

4d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $276K lifetime bet $808 on No at 50¢

4d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $1M lifetime bet $567 on Yes at 51¢

4d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Trade on Kalshi →