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Live prediction market odds for CT-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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CT-04 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Jim Himes (D)99¢1.01xKalshiMichael Goldstein (R)5¢20.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Jim Himes (D) about a 98.5% chance. Michael Goldstein (R) follows at 3.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.6 percentage points.

Traders give Jim Himes (D) about a 98.5% chance. Michael Goldstein (R) follows at 3.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.6 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CT-04 House race set for November 3, 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence party control in the House and impact legislative agendas.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JH
Jim Himes (D)
98%
Kalshi99¢
—
Polymarket99¢
Kalshi1.01x99¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
99.2%96¢99¢1¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.8%96¢99¢1¢4¢
MG
Michael Goldstein (R)ARB
3%
Kalshi5¢
Polymarket US6¢
Polymarket3¢
Kalshi21.28x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.5%0¢5¢95¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
5.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.4%0¢3¢97¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Jim Himes (D)

Jim Himes is the U.S. Representative for Connecticut's 4th District, serving his ninth term in Congress. He is the Ranking Member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and a senior member of the House Financial Services Committee. Himes has represented Connecticut's 4th District since 2009, demonstrating a strong track record in national security and financial oversight.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.6%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Jim Himes (D)

98.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CT-04 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CT-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the CT-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CT-04 House race?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, local issues and national political climate can sway public opinion.

How do prediction markets work for elections like CT-04?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and can change rapidly as new information emerges.

Why is the CT-04 House seat considered competitive?

The CT-04 seat has shown fluctuating support between parties in previous elections. Demographic changes and shifting political affiliations in the district contribute to its competitiveness.

What does the CT-04 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CT-04 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Jim Himes (D): 99.2¢ on Kalshi, 97.8¢ on Polymarket; Michael Goldstein (R): 2.5¢ on Kalshi, 1.4¢ on Polymarket, 5.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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