Live prediction market odds for CT-04 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This event is archived while we await a venue decision. The chart below shows historical odds.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CT-04 House race set for November 3, 2026.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CT-04 House race set for November 3, 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence party control in the House and impact legislative agendas.
Odds for questions with unconfirmed results.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Jim Himes (D) | Yes |
Other | No result |
Michael Goldstein (R) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for CT-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the CT-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout trends. Additionally, local issues and national political climate can sway public opinion.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and can change rapidly as new information emerges.
The CT-04 seat has shown fluctuating support between parties in previous elections. Demographic changes and shifting political affiliations in the district contribute to its competitiveness.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
