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Live prediction market odds for CT-05 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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CT-05 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Jahana Hayes (D)95¢1.05xPolymarket USChris Shea (R)6¢16.67xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Jahana Hayes (D) about a 95.5% chance. Chris Shea (R) follows at 4.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Traders give Jahana Hayes (D) about a 95.5% chance. Chris Shea (R) follows at 4.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.8 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the CT-05 House race in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both parties as they strategize for the election cycle.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JH
Jahana Hayes (D)
95%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
97.6%93¢98¢2¢7¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.8%94¢96¢4¢6¢
CS
Chris Shea (R)
5%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US6¢
Polymarket6¢
Polymarket US16.67x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.3%1¢7¢93¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
5.0%4¢6¢94¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.5%3¢6¢94¢97¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Jahana Hayes (D)

Jahana Hayes is the U.S. Representative for Connecticut's 5th Congressional District, serving since 2019. She was the 2016 National Teacher of the Year before entering politics. Hayes is recognized for her advocacy in education, healthcare, and social justice.

About Chris Shea (R)

Chris Shea is a retired U.S. Navy SEAL and lieutenant with the North Haven Fire Department. He founded Hero to Hero, a nonprofit aiding veterans' transition to first responder careers. Shea's military and first responder experience positions him as a challenger in Connecticut's 5th Congressional District.

Smart Trade Router

$
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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.8%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Jahana Hayes (D)

95.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: CT-05 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for CT-5 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the CT-05 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the CT-05 House winner?

Factors include candidate popularity, fundraising success, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements can also sway market perceptions.

How do prediction markets work for elections like CT-05?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs of market participants about who will win.

Why is the CT-05 House race significant?

The outcome of this race could impact the overall composition of the House of Representatives. Given its competitive nature, it draws attention from both national parties aiming to secure a majority.

What does the CT-05 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest CT-05 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Jahana Hayes (D): 97.6¢ on Kalshi, 93.8¢ on Polymarket, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US; Chris Shea (R): 4.3¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket, 5.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Will Democrats Hold CT-05? Markets Say 90% After a Crash With No ExplanationDemocratic odds snapped back +17pp to 90% in three days, but the mid-June plunge to 56% still has no public catalyst. Hayes holds $985,700 cash on hand.Jul 9, 2026Democratic Party Rebounds to 90% in CT-05 After Baseless Drop to 73%CT-05's 17pp swing exposed thin-market fragility; Republican challengers raised under $45K combined against Hayes's $985K war chest.Jul 7, 2026CT-05 Dems Fall to 56% Despite Cook's 'Likely Democratic' RatingKalshi prices CT-05 at 92% Democratic; Polymarket prices it at 20%. No Republican has held this seat since 2008.Jun 23, 2026CT-05 Republican Win Odds Hit 50% — 43 Points Above Rival MarketsGOP odds doubled in three days on one platform while Kalshi and Polymarket price Republicans at 4%. Hayes won CT-05 by 6.8 points in 2024.Jun 8, 2026