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Live prediction market odds for FL-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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FL-03 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Kat Cammack (R)95¢1.05xPolymarket USSeth Harp (D)8¢12.50xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Kat Cammack (R) about a 93.8% chance. Seth Harp (D) follows at 6.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.1 percentage points.

Traders give Kat Cammack (R) about a 93.8% chance. Seth Harp (D) follows at 6.5%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.1 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the FL-03 House race set for November 3, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, making it a focal point for both major parties' strategies and voter turnout efforts.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
KC
Kat Cammack (R)
94%
Kalshi96¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket94¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
94.0%92¢96¢4¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
SH
Seth Harp (D)
6%
Kalshi8¢
—
Polymarket8¢
Kalshi12.66x8¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.9%4¢8¢92¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.0%6¢8¢92¢94¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Kat Cammack (R)

Kat Cammack is the U.S. Representative for Florida's 3rd Congressional District, serving her third term in the House of Representatives. She previously served as Deputy Chief of Staff to Representative Ted Yoho from 2013 to 2019. Cammack is the author of the REINS Act, a significant regulatory reform effort, and chairs the Emerging Tech Task Force, leading House Republicans on issues like AI, quantum computing, and biotech.

About Seth Harp (D)

Seth Harp is a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Florida's 3rd Congressional District. He previously served as a member of the Georgia State Senate from 2001 to 2011. Harp's extensive political experience and leadership roles make him a significant contender in this election.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.1%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Kat Cammack (R)

93.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: FL-03 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for FL-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the FL-03 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the FL-03 House winner?

Key factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter demographics. Additionally, national trends and local issues can sway public opinion leading up to the election.

How do prediction markets work for elections like FL-03?

Prediction markets aggregate bets on various outcomes, reflecting the collective sentiment about election results. Prices fluctuate based on new information, such as polling data and candidate events.

Why is the FL-03 House race considered important?

The FL-03 House race is significant as it may impact the overall control of the House of Representatives. Changes in party representation can affect legislative priorities and governance.

What does the FL-03 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest FL-03 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Kat Cammack (R): 94.0¢ on Kalshi, 93.5¢ on Polymarket, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Seth Harp (D): 5.9¢ on Kalshi, 7.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Forecasters Rate Cammack 97-98% in FL-03 While Markets Sit at 94%Every major forecaster rates Cammack near-certain in FL-03. Prediction markets trail at 94%, likely due to thin liquidity, not competitive doubt.Sep 28, 2026