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Live prediction market odds for FL-14 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt and Predict.fun.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / PredictIt / Predict.fun

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FL-14 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Kathy Castor (D)66¢1.52xKalshiMike Beltran (R)32¢3.13xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Kathy Castor (D) about a 65.5% chance. Mike Beltran (R) follows at 33.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 19.5 percentage points.

Traders give Kathy Castor (D) about a 65.5% chance. Mike Beltran (R) follows at 33.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 19.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the FL-14 House election. This market resolves based on the official results announced after the election on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

5 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Predict.fun
Best price
KC
Kathy Castor (D)ARB
66%
Kalshi66¢
Polymarket US68¢
Polymarket64¢
PredictIt95¢
Predict.fun67¢
Kalshi1.52x66¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
65.0%65¢66¢34¢35¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
68.0%67¢68¢32¢33¢
PolymarketPolymarket
63.5%63¢64¢36¢37¢
PredictItPredictIt
48.5%2¢95¢5¢98¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
64.4%62¢67¢33¢38¢
MB
Mike Beltran (R)ARB
34%
Kalshi35¢
Polymarket US32¢
Polymarket36¢
—
Predict.fun38¢
Polymarket US3.13x32¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
35.0%34¢35¢65¢66¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
31.0%31¢32¢68¢69¢
PolymarketPolymarket
35.0%34¢36¢64¢66¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
35.5%33¢38¢62¢67¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictItPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Kathy Castor (D)

Kathy Castor is the U.S. Representative for Florida's 14th Congressional District, serving since 2007. She previously chaired the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis from 2019 to 2023. Castor is recognized for her leadership on energy policies and her commitment to advancing climate initiatives.

About Mike Beltran (R)

Mike Beltran is a Republican politician representing Florida's 70th district in the Florida House of Representatives. He previously served as a state representative from 2018 to 2024. Beltran is running for Florida's 14th congressional district in the 2026 elections.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread19.5%
Platforms5
Candidates2
Leader

Kathy Castor (D)

65.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: FL-14 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for FL-14 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the FL-14 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently Asked Questions

When does the FL-14 House election take place?

The FL-14 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the general election when voters will cast their ballots.

How is the winner of the FL-14 House election determined?

The winner is determined by the official election results announced after the voting concludes on November 3, 2026. Votes are counted and certified by election officials.

What factors influence the odds for the FL-14 House winner market?

Odds are influenced by candidate campaigning, polling data, and voter sentiment as the election date approaches. Developments in local and national politics can also affect market fluctuations.

What does the FL-14 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest FL-14 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Kathy Castor (D): 65.0¢ on Kalshi, 63.5¢ on Polymarket, 48.5¢ on PredictIt, 68.0¢ on Polymarket US, 64.4¢ on Predict.fun; Mike Beltran (R): 35.0¢ on Kalshi, 35.0¢ on Polymarket, 31.0¢ on Polymarket US, 35.5¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Castor FL-14 Re-Election Odds Fall 10 Points to Near Toss-UpPrediction markets price Castor at 59% as Inside Elections calls FL-14 a toss-up, the first genuinely competitive rating of her 18-year tenure.Sep 28, 2026