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Live prediction market odds for FL-17 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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FL-17 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Greg Steube (R)95¢1.05xPolymarket USMatthew Montavon (D)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Greg Steube (R) about a 94.8% chance. Matthew Montavon (D) follows at 6.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.2 percentage points.

Traders give Greg Steube (R) about a 94.8% chance. Matthew Montavon (D) follows at 6.6%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.2 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the FL-17 House election. This race will be resolved based on the official election results announced on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigns and voter sentiment leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
GS
Greg Steube (R)
95%
Kalshi97¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket95¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.4%94¢97¢3¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
MM
Matthew Montavon (D)
7%
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket7¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.2%3¢8¢93¢97¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.5%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.0%5¢7¢93¢95¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Greg Steube (R)

Greg Steube is the U.S. Representative for Florida's 17th Congressional District, serving his fourth term in the House of Representatives. Before his congressional tenure, he served in the Florida Senate and House, and as an infantry officer and judge advocate general in the U.S. Army. His extensive legislative experience and military background make him a significant figure in Florida's political landscape.

About Matthew Montavon (D)

Matthew Montavon is a retired public administrator and former candidate for Florida's 17th Congressional District. He previously worked in local government planning and managed a $50 million budget at the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. His experience in public administration and international organizations underscores his qualifications for a role in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.2%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Greg Steube (R)

94.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: FL-17 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for FL-17 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the FL-17 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the FL-17 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

How do candidate campaigns affect the odds in this market?

Odds can change based on candidate fundraising, debates, and public appearances, which influence voter perception leading up to the election.

What platforms are tracking the FL-17 House winner market?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the odds for the FL-17 House election.

What does the FL-17 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest FL-17 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Greg Steube (R): 95.4¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket, 94.5¢ on Polymarket US; Matthew Montavon (D): 7.2¢ on Kalshi, 6.0¢ on Polymarket, 6.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

FL-17: Why Steube's 94% Market Price Lags a 98% ForecastCall the Map projects Steube at 98-in-100 with R+16.4. Markets moved from 87% to 94% in three days but still trail the model by four points.Sep 28, 2026

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