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Live prediction market odds for Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place. Compare prices across Kalshi.

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Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

2026-08-18

About This Market

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place: current odds are unavailable. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place: current odds are unavailable. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Florida Republican governor primary for the second place outcome. This primary is crucial as it shapes the party's strategy and candidate positioning ahead of the general election, influencing voter sentiment and campaign dynamics.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

1 platform
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
BD
Byron Donalds
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
CD
Casey DeSantis
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
JF
James Fishback
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
JC
Jay Collins
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
99.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
PR
Paul Renner
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.0%0¢100¢0¢100¢
KalshiKalshi

Candidate Spotlight

About James Fishback

James Fishback is a fourth-generation Floridian and CEO of Azoria Partners, an investment firm. He previously founded Incubate Debate, a nonprofit bringing free debate leagues to Florida high schools. Fishback is running for governor to make life more affordable for Floridians and has proposed eliminating property taxes on homesteaded properties.

About Jay Collins

Jay Collins is the current Lieutenant Governor of Florida, serving since August 2025. Before this role, he was a Republican state senator representing Hillsborough County from 2020 to 2025. His extensive military background as a Green Beret and his leadership in Operation BBQ Relief highlight his commitment to public service.

About Paul Renner

Paul Renner is a former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives and a U.S. Navy veteran. He served as Speaker from November 2022 to November 2024 and represented the 19th district from 2015 to 2024. Renner's leadership in the legislature and military service underscore his qualifications for public office.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.0%
Platforms1
Candidates5
Leader

Byron Donalds

0.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Jay Collins finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place) For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds in the Florida Republican governor primary?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign strategies significantly impact the odds. Additionally, voter sentiment and key issues in Florida can sway public opinion leading up to the primary.

Why is the second place outcome important in this primary?

Finishing in second place can provide candidates with momentum and visibility for future elections. It also affects the allocation of party resources and support for the eventual nominee.

How do prediction markets reflect changes in candidate standings?

Prediction markets adjust odds based on real-time information, including debates, media coverage, and fundraising success. As candidates gain or lose support, the markets react to these shifts, providing insights into potential outcomes.

What does the Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place odds?

The latest available prices are Byron Donalds: 1.0¢ on Kalshi; Casey DeSantis: 1.0¢ on Kalshi; James Fishback: 1.0¢ on Kalshi; Jay Collins: 99.0¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds
No price history available

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Fishback's Florida Primary Second-Place Odds Fall to 24%Fishback won his ballot eligibility case on July 28, yet his second-place odds dropped 11pp to 24% across Kalshi and Polymarket within three days.Aug 12, 2026Jay Collins Favored at 73% for 2nd Place in Florida GOP PrimaryCollins surged 11pp in 72 hours amid a residency challenge against Fishback. His April fundraising total was $388,489, far below a dominant campaign.Aug 10, 2026Fishback Wins Ballot Fight but Drops 10pp to 30% for Florida GOP 2nd PlaceMarkets now price a 70% chance Fishback finishes third or worse, with Kalshi at 32% and Polymarket at 28% ahead of the August 18 primary.Aug 3, 2026Jay Collins Holds 60% to Finish 2nd in FL GOP Governor PrimaryCollins gained 8pp in three days despite a reported $1M Club for Growth opposition push. Kalshi prices him at 58%; Polymarket at 62%.Aug 1, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 9%Florida Republican Governor nominee?LOSTPre-event: 2%

Prediction Market Track Record

Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 5%Republican nominee for Senate in Florida in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 2%

Prediction Market Track Record

Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 1%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Republican nominee for Governor in Florida in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

LOSTPaul Renner
Pre-event: 1%

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

Resolved

2026-08-18

LOSTJames Fishback
Pre-event: 2%

Republican nominee for Senate in Florida in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

LOSTJay Collins
Pre-event: 2%