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Live prediction market odds for Hawaii Governor winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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Hawaii Governor winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Josh Green (D)97¢1.03xPolymarket USGary Cordery (R)4¢25.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Josh Green (D) about a 97.3% chance. Gary Cordery (R) follows at 2.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.9 percentage points.

Traders give Josh Green (D) about a 97.3% chance. Gary Cordery (R) follows at 2.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.9 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the Hawaii gubernatorial election set for November 3, 2026. This election is pivotal as it could influence local policies and party control in a historically Democratic state.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JG
Josh Green (D)
97%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US97¢
Polymarket99¢
Polymarket US1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
98.0%97¢98¢2¢3¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.5%96¢97¢3¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.4%96¢99¢2¢4¢
GC
Gary Cordery (R)
3%
Kalshi4¢
—
Polymarket3¢
Kalshi25.64x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.6%2¢4¢96¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.7%0¢3¢97¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Josh Green (D)

Josh Green is the current Governor of Hawaiʻi, serving since December 2022. He previously served as Hawaiʻi's Lieutenant Governor from 2018 to 2022. As a physician and former legislator, he has a strong background in healthcare and public service.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.9%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Josh Green (D)

97.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Hawaii Governor winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Hawaii pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Hawaii Governor election?

Factors include candidate popularity, party affiliation, and recent polling data. Additionally, local issues and national trends can sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.

How often do odds change for this election?

Odds can fluctuate frequently as new information emerges, such as candidate announcements or shifts in public opinion. Major events like debates or endorsements also impact market prices.

What is at stake in the Hawaii gubernatorial election?

The outcome will determine the state's leadership and influence policy decisions on key issues like tourism, healthcare, and education. It also affects the balance of power between political parties in Hawaii.

What does the Hawaii Governor winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Hawaii Governor winner odds?

The latest available prices are Josh Green (D): 98.0¢ on Kalshi, 97.4¢ on Polymarket, 96.5¢ on Polymarket US; Gary Cordery (R): 3.6¢ on Kalshi, 1.7¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds