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Live prediction market odds for IA-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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IA-01 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Christina Bohannan (D)82¢1.22xPolymarket USMariannette Miller-Meeks (R)18¢5.56xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Christina Bohannan (D) about a 82.3% chance. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) follows at 18.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.0 percentage points.

Traders give Christina Bohannan (D) about a 82.3% chance. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) follows at 18.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 6.0 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the IA-01 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Best price
CB
Christina Bohannan (D)
82%
Kalshi83¢
Polymarket US82¢
Polymarket83¢
PredictIt89¢
Polymarket US1.22x82¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
83.0%81¢83¢17¢19¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
81.0%81¢82¢18¢19¢
PolymarketPolymarket
83.0%80¢83¢17¢20¢
PredictItPredictIt
85.0%80¢89¢11¢20¢
MM
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)ARB
19%
Kalshi18¢
Polymarket US21¢
Polymarket18¢
PredictIt40¢
Kalshi5.56x18¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
18.0%17¢18¢82¢83¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
21.0%20¢21¢79¢80¢
PolymarketPolymarket
17.0%16¢18¢82¢84¢
PredictItPredictIt
15.0%10¢40¢60¢90¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Candidate Spotlight

About Christina Bohannan (D)

Christina Bohannan is a law professor at the University of Iowa and a Democratic candidate for Iowa's 1st Congressional District. She served as an Iowa State Representative from 2021 to 2023 and was the Democratic nominee for the same congressional seat in 2022 and 2024. Bohannan's extensive experience in law and public service underscores her qualifications for this role.

About Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

Mariannette Miller-Meeks is the U.S. Representative for Iowa's 1st Congressional District. She served as Director of the Iowa Department of Public Health from 2010 to 2014. Her extensive experience in public health and military service informs her legislative priorities.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread6.0%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Christina Bohannan (D)

82.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: IA-01 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for IA-1 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the IA-01 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the IA-01 House winner?

Candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues play significant roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, national trends and voter turnout predictions can impact market movements.

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom and sentiment of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.

What is the significance of the IA-01 House race?

The IA-01 House race is significant as it may determine control of the House of Representatives. Results from this district can also serve as indicators of broader political trends in the state and nationally.

What does the IA-01 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest IA-01 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Christina Bohannan (D): 83.0¢ on Kalshi, 83.0¢ on Polymarket, 85.0¢ on PredictIt, 81.0¢ on Polymarket US; Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R): 18.0¢ on Kalshi, 17.0¢ on Polymarket, 15.0¢ on PredictIt, 21.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Bohannan Leads IA-01 Polls 40-35 as Markets Price Her at 82%A July Bullfinch poll gives Bohannan a 5-point lead over Miller-Meeks, and her $700K cash edge has traders pricing her at 82% to flip the seat.Sep 23, 2026Bohannan Leads IA-01 by 5 Points as Miller-Meeks Odds Fall to 26%Forecasters now give Bohannan a 69-70% chance of flipping IA-01. Republican prediction market contracts dropped 9 points in three days.Sep 13, 2026Bohannan Hits 75–79% in IA-01 Markets Despite Cook Toss-Up RatingMiller-Meeks fell 8 points in three days to 21%, even as Cook holds IA-01 at toss-up in a district Trump won by 8.5 points.Sep 3, 2026Republican Odds in IA-01 Jump to 32% as Polls Show 4.5-Point GapGOP implied probability climbed 8 points in three days to 32%. Bohannan leads polling averages 41.5% to 37.0% but Miller-Meeks has a fundraising edge.Aug 20, 2026
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Trader up $1.6M lifetime bet $2.3K on Yes at 84¢

1d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Prediction Market Track Record

IA-01 Democratic nominee?WONPre-event: 95%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

IA-01 Democratic nominee?

Resolved

2026-06-02

WONChristina Bohannan (D)
Pre-event: 95%