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Live prediction market odds for IA-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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IA-03 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Sarah Trone Garriott (D)76¢1.32xKalshiZach Nunn (R)24¢4.17xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Sarah Trone Garriott (D) about a 75.8% chance. Zach Nunn (R) follows at 23.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Traders give Sarah Trone Garriott (D) about a 75.8% chance. Zach Nunn (R) follows at 23.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the IA-03 House race. This election outcome will impact party control in the House and influence legislative priorities moving forward.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
ST
Sarah Trone Garriott (D)
76%
Kalshi76¢
Polymarket US76¢
Polymarket77¢
Kalshi1.32x76¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
76.0%75¢76¢24¢25¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
75.0%75¢76¢24¢25¢
PolymarketPolymarket
76.5%76¢77¢23¢24¢
ZN
Zach Nunn (R)
23%
Kalshi26¢
Polymarket US24¢
Polymarket24¢
Polymarket US4.17x24¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
22.0%22¢26¢74¢78¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
23.5%23¢24¢76¢77¢
PolymarketPolymarket
23.5%23¢24¢76¢77¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Sarah Trone Garriott (D)

Sarah Trone Garriott is a Democratic member of the Iowa State Senate, representing the 14th district. She previously served as a hospital chaplain and was elected to the Iowa State Senate in 2020, flipping a Republican-held seat. Her experience in both ministry and state legislation underscores her commitment to public service and community engagement.

About Zach Nunn (R)

Zach Nunn is the U.S. Representative for Iowa's 3rd congressional district, serving since 2023. He previously served in the Iowa House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019 and the Iowa Senate from 2019 to 2023. Nunn has a background in military intelligence and cybersecurity, having served as Director of Cybersecurity at the White House National Security Council.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Sarah Trone Garriott (D)

75.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: IA-03 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for IA-3 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the IA-03 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the IA-03 House race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements can also significantly sway public perception.

How does the IA-03 House race fit into the broader electoral landscape?

The IA-03 race is crucial as it could determine the balance of power in the House of Representatives. A shift in control could affect legislative agendas and party strategies.

When is the IA-03 House election scheduled?

The IA-03 House election is set for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election, where multiple federal and state offices will be contested.

What does the IA-03 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest IA-03 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Sarah Trone Garriott (D): 76.0¢ on Kalshi, 76.5¢ on Polymarket, 75.0¢ on Polymarket US; Zach Nunn (R): 22.0¢ on Kalshi, 23.5¢ on Polymarket, 23.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Forecasters Give Nunn 66% in IA-03. Markets Price Him at 32%.Cook rates IA-03 'Lean R' and Psephologix gives Nunn 66%, but prediction markets sit at 32%. His contract has gained 8 points in three days.Sep 28, 2026Zach Nunn Falls to 32% to Win IA-03 After 13-Point DropNo poll or news triggered the move. Nunn touched 27% before recovering; the district flipped by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2022.Jun 27, 2026Nunn's IA-03 Odds Hit 41% Despite Cook's Toss-Up DowngradePrediction markets moved Nunn +15pp in three days while Cook Political shifted IA-03 from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, creating a rare forecaster-trader split.Jun 18, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Who will vote Yes to releasing Epstein files?WONPre-event: 0%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Who will vote Yes to releasing Epstein files?

Resolved
WONZach Nunn (R)
Pre-event: 0%