Live prediction market odds for IA-04 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This market resolved on Nov 4, 2026. Chris McGowan (R) was the officially declared outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the IA-04 House race.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the IA-04 House race. This market resolves based on the official election results announced on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the election.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Chris McGowan (R)WINNER | Yes |
David Dawson (D) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for IA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the IA-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the IA-04 House winner market.
Odds in this market are influenced by candidate campaigning, voter sentiment, and polling leading up to the election.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
