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Live prediction market odds for IL-15 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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IL-15 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Mary Miller (R)92¢1.09xPolymarket USJennifer Todd (D)8¢12.50xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Mary Miller (R) about a 93.9% chance. Jennifer Todd (D) follows at 5.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.5 percentage points.

Traders give Mary Miller (R) about a 93.9% chance. Jennifer Todd (D) follows at 5.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 4.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the IL-15 House election. This election will be resolved on November 3, 2026, based on the official results announced by the state election authority.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
MM
Mary Miller (R)ARB
94%
Kalshi96¢
Polymarket US92¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.3%94¢96¢4¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
91.0%91¢92¢8¢9¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.5%95¢96¢4¢5¢
JT
Jennifer Todd (D)ARB
6%
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket US8¢
Polymarket5¢
Kalshi12.82x8¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
6.6%4¢8¢92¢96¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
7.0%7¢8¢92¢93¢
PolymarketPolymarket
3.8%3¢5¢96¢97¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Mary Miller (R)

Mary E. Miller is the U.S. Representative for Illinois's 15th congressional district, serving since 2021. She previously served as Vice Chair of the House Committee on Education and the Workforce. Miller's legislative focus includes education, labor, and agriculture policy.

About Jennifer Todd (D)

Jennifer Todd is a registered nurse and Democratic candidate for Illinois's 15th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. She has worked in ICU, hospice, school nursing, and healthcare insurance appeals. Todd campaigns on expanding healthcare access, protecting Medicare and Medicaid, securing Community Project Funding, and supporting public education and family farms.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread4.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Mary Miller (R)

93.9% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: IL-15 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for IL-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the IL-15 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the IL-15 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

Which platforms are tracking the IL-15 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the IL-15 House winner market.

How is the winner of the IL-15 House election determined?

The winner is determined by the official results from the state election authority after the election takes place.

What does the IL-15 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest IL-15 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Mary Miller (R): 95.3¢ on Kalshi, 95.5¢ on Polymarket, 91.0¢ on Polymarket US; Jennifer Todd (D): 6.6¢ on Kalshi, 3.8¢ on Polymarket, 7.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Mary Miller at 96% in IL-15: What's Behind the 9-Point Market ClimbPrediction markets climbed 9 points to 96% for Miller, with Call the Map projecting a 30-point margin and no DCCC money entering the race.Sep 20, 2026