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Live prediction market odds for IN-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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IN-03 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Marlin Stutzman (R)97¢1.03xKalshiKelly Thompson (D)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Marlin Stutzman (R) about a 95.0% chance. Kelly Thompson (D) follows at 5.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Traders give Marlin Stutzman (R) about a 95.0% chance. Kelly Thompson (D) follows at 5.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the IN-03 House race. This election will be resolved based on the official results announced after the polls close on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigns and local issues.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
MS
Marlin Stutzman (R)
95%
Kalshi97¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket96¢
Kalshi1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.0%93¢97¢3¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.0%93¢95¢5¢7¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.0%94¢96¢4¢6¢
KT
Kelly Thompson (D)
5%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket5¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.7%2¢7¢93¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.5%4¢5¢95¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Marlin Stutzman (R)

Marlin Stutzman is the current U.S. Representative for Indiana's 3rd Congressional District, serving his fourth term since January 3, 2025. He previously represented the same district from 2010 to 2017 and has also served in the Indiana State House and Senate. Stutzman is a fourth-generation farmer and has been involved in various business ventures, including co-owning Stutzman Brothers Meats and The Barns At Nappanee.

About Kelly Thompson (D)

Kelly Thompson is the Democratic nominee for Indiana's 3rd Congressional District. She co-owns a concrete contracting company and founded a nonprofit focused on at-risk youth. Her campaign emphasizes defending public education, protecting reproductive freedom, expanding affordable housing and healthcare, protecting farmland, and legalizing cannabis.

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Kalshi Rules
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Stats
Spread1.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Marlin Stutzman (R)

95.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: IN-03 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for IN-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the IN-03 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the date of the IN-03 House election?

The IN-03 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the end of the election process for this congressional seat.

How will the winner of the IN-03 House race be determined?

The winner will be determined by the official election results released after the polls close. These results will reflect the votes cast by constituents in the district.

What factors influence the odds in the IN-03 House race markets?

Odds in the IN-03 House race markets are influenced by candidate campaigns, local issues, and voter sentiment. Changes in polling data and endorsements can also impact market movements.

What does the IN-03 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest IN-03 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Marlin Stutzman (R): 95.0¢ on Kalshi, 95.0¢ on Polymarket, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US; Kelly Thompson (D): 4.7¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Republican Win Probability in IN-03 Reaches 97% With No DemocraticPrediction markets price Indiana's 3rd District at 97% Republican, up 9 points from an 88% period low, as no Democratic candidate has filed.Sep 20, 2026