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Live prediction market odds for KY-05 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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KY-05 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Hal Rogers (R)97¢1.03xPolymarket USNed Pillersdorf (D)4¢25.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Hal Rogers (R) about a 94.8% chance. Ned Pillersdorf (D) follows at 3.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Traders give Hal Rogers (R) about a 94.8% chance. Ned Pillersdorf (D) follows at 3.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the KY-05 House election, scheduled for November 3, 2026. The market resolves based on the official election results announced by the state election office following the voting process on that date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
HR
Hal Rogers (R)
95%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US97¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.0%93¢98¢2¢7¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.5%96¢97¢3¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.0%94¢96¢4¢6¢
NP
Ned Pillersdorf (D)
3%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket US4¢
Polymarket5¢
Polymarket US25.00x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
3.0%2¢4¢96¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
3.0%3¢4¢96¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Hal Rogers (R)

Hal Rogers is the U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 5th congressional district, serving since 1981. He was Chair of the House Appropriations Committee from 2011 to 2017. Rogers is the longest-serving Republican from Kentucky in federal office.

About Ned Pillersdorf (D)

Ned Pillersdorf is a Democratic candidate for Kentucky's 5th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He is a trial attorney from Prestonsburg, Kentucky, known for representing low-income Kentuckians affected by the Eric Conn fraud scandal. His extensive legal experience and commitment to social justice make him a notable contender in this race.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Hal Rogers (R)

94.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: KY-05 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for KY-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the KY-05 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the KY-05 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced. This date marks the general election for the House seat.

How do odds change in the KY-05 House winner market?

Odds fluctuate based on factors such as candidate polling, campaign events, and voter sentiment leading up to the election. Significant developments in the race can impact the market prices.

What determines the winner in the KY-05 House election?

The winner is determined by the total votes received by each candidate, as counted and certified by the state election office. The candidate with the most votes is declared the winner.

What does the KY-05 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest KY-05 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Hal Rogers (R): 93.0¢ on Kalshi, 95.0¢ on Polymarket, 96.5¢ on Polymarket US; Ned Pillersdorf (D): 3.0¢ on Kalshi, 4.0¢ on Polymarket, 3.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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