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Live prediction market odds for KY-06 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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KY-06 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Ralph Alvarado (R)77¢1.30xKalshiZach Dembo (D)25¢4.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Ralph Alvarado (R) about a 75.7% chance. Zach Dembo (D) follows at 25.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Ralph Alvarado (R) about a 75.7% chance. Zach Dembo (D) follows at 25.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the KY-06 House race. This market resolves based on the official election results announced on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
RA
Ralph Alvarado (R)
76%
Kalshi77¢
Polymarket US77¢
Polymarket75¢
Kalshi1.30x77¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
76.0%75¢77¢23¢25¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
76.5%76¢77¢23¢24¢
PolymarketPolymarket
74.5%74¢75¢25¢26¢
ZD
Zach Dembo (D)
25%
Kalshi25¢
Polymarket US26¢
Polymarket26¢
Kalshi4.00x25¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
25.0%24¢25¢75¢76¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
25.5%25¢26¢74¢75¢
PolymarketPolymarket
25.5%25¢26¢74¢75¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Ralph Alvarado (R)

Ralph Alvarado is a Republican candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in the 2026 general election. He served as Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Health from 2023 to 2025 and was a Kentucky State Senator from 2015 to 2023. Alvarado has a background in medicine and public health policy.

About Zach Dembo (D)

Zach Dembo is a Democratic candidate for Kentucky's 6th Congressional District. He previously served as a federal prosecutor in the U.S. Department of Justice Civil Rights Division and as a policy advisor to Governor Andy Beshear. Dembo is recognized for his commitment to public service and his efforts in combating corruption.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Ralph Alvarado (R)

75.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: KY-06 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for KY-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the KY-06 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the KY-06 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

How do odds change for the KY-06 House winner market?

Odds fluctuate based on candidate campaigning, polling data, and voter sentiment as the election date approaches.

Which platforms are tracking the KY-06 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the winner of the KY-06 House race.

What does the KY-06 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest KY-06 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Ralph Alvarado (R): 76.0¢ on Kalshi, 74.5¢ on Polymarket, 76.5¢ on Polymarket US; Zach Dembo (D): 25.0¢ on Kalshi, 25.5¢ on Polymarket, 25.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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