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Live prediction market odds for LA-05 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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LA-05 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Republican Party97¢1.03xPolymarket USDemocratic Party5¢20.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Republican Party about a 96.5% chance. Democratic Party follows at 3.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.3 percentage points.

Traders give Republican Party about a 96.5% chance. Democratic Party follows at 3.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.3 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the LA-05 House election. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment in the region leading up to the 2026 elections.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
RP
Republican Party
96%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US97¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
97.6%92¢98¢2¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.5%96¢97¢3¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.3%95¢96¢4¢5¢
DP
Democratic Party
4%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US5¢
Polymarket4¢
Polymarket US20.00x5¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.5%2¢7¢93¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
4.0%4¢5¢95¢96¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.6%1¢4¢96¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Smart Trade Router

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¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.3%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Republican Party

96.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: LA-05 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for LA-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if a representative of the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm election for the LA-05 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the LA-05 House election?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and voter turnout predictions. Polling data and local issues also play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment.

How does the LA-05 House election affect national politics?

The outcome could shift the majority in the House of Representatives, impacting legislative agendas. Additionally, it may signal trends in voter behavior that could affect future elections.

When is the LA-05 House election scheduled?

The election is set for November 3, 2026. This timing places it during a critical election cycle that could influence broader political dynamics.

What does the LA-05 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest LA-05 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Republican Party: 97.6¢ on Kalshi, 95.3¢ on Polymarket, 96.5¢ on Polymarket US; Democratic Party: 4.5¢ on Kalshi, 2.6¢ on Polymarket, 4.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Eight GOP Candidates Split LA-05 as Republican Odds Fall to 88%Cook still rates LA-05 'Solid R,' but markets dropped 9 points after Democrats unified behind Antonio Wilson of Tallulah.Sep 25, 2026Democrat in LA-05 Calls Win 'Possible' as GOP Hits 96%Cook rates LA-05 'Solid R' and Kalshi prices the GOP at 98%. The Democratic endorsee framed a win as something he merely believes is possible.Sep 22, 2026