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Live prediction market odds for Los Angeles Mayor winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt and Predict.fun.

Browse historical results
Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt / Predict.fun

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Los Angeles Mayor winner?

2026-06-02

Best price · tap to trade

Karen Bass67¢1.49xKalshiNithya Raman10¢10.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Karen Bass about a 65.0% chance. Nithya Raman follows at 11.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.1 percentage points.

Traders give Karen Bass about a 65.0% chance. Nithya Raman follows at 11.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.1 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the winner of the Los Angeles Mayor election set for June 2026. This election is pivotal as it will influence local policies and governance in one of the largest cities in the U.S.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Predict.fun
Best price
KB
Karen BassARB
65%
Kalshi67¢
Polymarket64¢
PredictIt66¢
Predict.fun68¢
Kalshi1.49x67¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
66.5%66¢67¢33¢34¢
PolymarketPolymarket
63.5%63¢64¢36¢37¢
PredictItPredictIt
66.0%62¢66¢34¢38¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
65.8%66¢68¢32¢34¢
NR
Nithya RamanARB
11%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket13¢
PredictIt14¢
Predict.fun13¢
Kalshi10.53x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
9.4%9¢10¢91¢91¢
PolymarketPolymarket
12.5%12¢13¢87¢88¢
PredictItPredictIt
12.0%12¢14¢86¢88¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
12.1%12¢13¢87¢88¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictItPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Karen Bass

Karen Bass is the 43rd Mayor of Los Angeles, having taken office on December 12, 2022. Prior to this, she served six terms in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2011 to 2022, representing California's 37th congressional district. Her extensive political experience and leadership roles make her a central figure in Los Angeles' governance.

About Nithya Raman

Nithya Raman is a Los Angeles City Councilmember representing District 4. She previously served as Co-Chair of the Silver Lake Neighborhood Council Homelessness Committee and co-founded the SELAH Neighborhood Homeless Coalition. She is relevant to this prediction market as a candidate in the upcoming Los Angeles mayoral election.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Attorney General of the United Statesthe Federal Election Commission
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.1%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Karen Bass

65.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Los Angeles Mayor winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Karen Bass wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Attorney General of the United Statesthe Federal Election Commission
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Bass at 61% to Win LA Mayor Race Despite 30% Primary Poll ShareBass fell 11pp in 3 days on Kalshi and PredictIt as a three-way primary split makes a June 2 outright win impossible; November runoff now certain.May 30, 2026Raman's LA Mayor Win Odds Fall 30 Points to 20%Markets repriced Raman from 50% to 20% over three days as the outlier Loyola Marymount poll lost credibility against two contradicting surveys.May 9, 2026Bass Hits 28% in LA Mayor Markets Despite Being Outfunded by RivalsKaren Bass surged +8pp in 3 days on Kalshi and PredictIt, reaching 28% implied probability as 40% of likely voters remain undecided with 30 days to June 2.May 3, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Los Angeles Mayor election?

Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and public opinion polls. Local issues such as housing, public safety, and economic recovery also play a crucial role.

How do prediction markets work for elections?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the perceived probability of each candidate winning.

When is the Los Angeles Mayor election scheduled?

The election is scheduled for June 2, 2026. This timing is significant as it coincides with other local and national elections.

What does the Los Angeles Mayor winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Los Angeles Mayor winner odds?

The latest available prices are Karen Bass: 66.5¢ on Kalshi, 63.5¢ on Polymarket, 66.0¢ on PredictIt, 65.8¢ on Predict.fun; Nithya Raman: 9.4¢ on Kalshi, 12.5¢ on Polymarket, 12.0¢ on PredictIt, 12.1¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

Prediction Market Track Record

Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionLOSTPre-event: 69%

Prediction Market Track Record

Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionLOSTPre-event: 6%Los Angeles mayoral primary: Spencer Pratt vs Nithya Raman marginLOSTPre-event: 1%
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying Nithya Raman

Smart Money Consensus$349
$349Yes
Smart Traders Split1
1Yes
KalshiBuy Yes at 10¢

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Nithya Raman
Yes$349 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $32.4K lifetime bet $1.9K on No at 42¢

1d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $337K lifetime bet $878 on Yes at 41¢

1d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $19.6K lifetime bet $585 on Yes at 59¢

1d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $81.3K lifetime bet $4.2K on Yes at 42¢

1d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $231K lifetime bet $800 on Yes at 58¢

1d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Trade on Kalshi →

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Resolved

2026-06-02

LOSTNithya Raman
Pre-event: 6%

Los Angeles mayoral primary: Spencer Pratt vs Nithya Raman margin

Resolved

2027-06-05

LOSTNithya Raman
Pre-event: 1%

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

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Final odds