Live prediction market odds for Los Angeles Mayor winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-06-02
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the winner of the Los Angeles Mayor election set for June 2026. This election is pivotal as it will influence local policies and governance in one of the largest cities in the U.S.
Karen Bass leads the “Los Angeles Mayor winner” event at 62.7% implied probability, followed by Nithya Raman at 29.6%. A 21.4% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Prediction Market Track Record
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and public opinion polls. Local issues such as housing, public safety, and economic recovery also play a crucial role.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the perceived probability of each candidate winning.
The election is scheduled for June 2, 2026. This timing is significant as it coincides with other local and national elections.
Los Angeles Mayor winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Karen Bass leads at 63% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Nithya Raman at 30%.
Karen Bass currently leads at 63% implied probability. Behind Karen Bass, Nithya Raman at 30% are the next closest contenders. The 21.4% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Karen Bass wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThe 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Karen Bass
62.7% avg
