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Live prediction market odds for Los Angeles Mayoral Election. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

Browse historical results
Kalshi

Kalshi

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Kalshi / Polymarket / Predict.fun

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Los Angeles Mayoral Election

2026-06-02

Best price · tap to trade

Karen Bass67¢1.49xKalshiCandidate H50¢2.00xPolymarketCandidate I50¢2.00xPolymarket
Compare all 20 outcomes across 3 venues

About This Market

Traders give Karen Bass about a 65.0% chance. Candidate H follows at 50.0%, Candidate I follows at 50.0%, and Candidate J follows at 50.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Traders give Karen Bass about a 65.0% chance. Candidate H follows at 50.0%, Candidate I follows at 50.0%, and Candidate J follows at 50.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Los Angeles Mayoral Election set for June 2, 2026. This election will determine the city's leadership, influencing local policies and governance in a major urban center.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
PolymarketPolymarket
Predict.funPredict.fun
Best price
KB
Karen BassARB
65%
Kalshi67¢
Polymarket64¢
Predict.fun68¢
Kalshi1.49x67¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
66.5%66¢67¢33¢34¢
PolymarketPolymarket
63.5%63¢64¢36¢37¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
65.8%66¢68¢32¢34¢
CH
Candidate H
single venue50%
—
Polymarket50¢
—
Polymarket2.00x50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
CI
Candidate I
single venue50%
—
Polymarket50¢
—
Polymarket2.00x50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
CJ
Candidate J
single venue50%
—
Polymarket50¢
—
Polymarket2.00x50¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
PolymarketPolymarket
50.0%50¢50¢50¢50¢
SP
Spencer Pratt
single venue25%
Kalshi25¢
—
—
Kalshi4.00x25¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
25.0%24¢25¢75¢76¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Karen Bass

Karen Bass is the current Mayor of Los Angeles, having assumed office on December 12, 2022. Prior to this, she served six terms in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2011 to 2022. As the incumbent mayor, she is seeking re-election in the upcoming 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election.

About Spencer Pratt

Spencer Pratt is a reality television personality and politician, currently running for Mayor of Los Angeles in the 2026 election. He gained fame on MTV's 'The Hills' and announced his candidacy on January 7, 2026, following the Palisades fire that destroyed his home. His campaign focuses on addressing systemic issues in Los Angeles government and public safety.

About Nithya Raman

Nithya Raman is a Los Angeles City Councilmember representing District 4. She was first elected in 2020, becoming the first Asian-American woman and first South Asian to serve on the City Council. She is running for mayor in the upcoming Los Angeles Mayoral Election.

About Adam Miller

Adam Miller is a tech executive and nonprofit founder running for mayor of Los Angeles in the 2026 election. He co-founded Cornerstone OnDemand, a global education company, and Better Angels, a nonprofit focused on preventing homelessness. His experience in business and nonprofit sectors positions him to address Los Angeles's challenges in housing and public safety.

About Rae Huang

Rae Huang is a community organizer and ordained Presbyterian minister. She is the deputy director of Housing Now California, a coalition fighting tenant displacement. She is running for mayor of Los Angeles in the 2026 election.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Attorney General of the United Statesthe Federal Election Commission
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.0%
Platforms3
Candidates20
Leader

Karen Bass

65.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Karen Bass wins the Los Angeles Mayoral Election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Attorney General of the United Statesthe Federal Election Commission
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Los Angeles Mayoral Election?

The Los Angeles Mayoral Election plays a crucial role in shaping the city's policies on housing, public safety, and transportation. The elected mayor will have a significant impact on the direction of these key issues.

How do prediction markets reflect the candidates' chances?

Prediction markets aggregate real-time data and sentiment about candidates, reflecting public opinion and expert analysis. As events unfold, such as debates or endorsements, the odds can fluctuate significantly.

When will the Los Angeles Mayoral Election take place?

The election is scheduled for June 2, 2026. Voter turnout and engagement will be critical factors influencing the outcome.

What does the Los Angeles Mayoral Election prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Los Angeles Mayoral Election odds?

The latest available prices are Karen Bass: 66.5¢ on Kalshi, 63.5¢ on Polymarket, 65.8¢ on Predict.fun; Candidate H: 50.0¢ on Polymarket; Candidate I: 50.0¢ on Polymarket; Candidate J: 50.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Bass Drops to 34% in LA Mayoral Market as Polls Show 16-Point DeficitBass has fallen to her lowest market price in three days; the Berkeley/LA Times poll shows 26% of likely voters still undecided, making her path to the top two uncertain.Mar 30, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Los Angeles Mayor winner?LOSTPre-event: 69%

Prediction Market Track Record

Los Angeles Mayor winner?LOSTPre-event: 6%Los Angeles mayoral primary: Spencer Pratt vs Nithya Raman marginLOSTPre-event: 1%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

Resolved

2026-06-02

LOSTNithya Raman
Pre-event: 6%

Los Angeles mayoral primary: Spencer Pratt vs Nithya Raman margin

Resolved

2027-06-05

LOSTNithya Raman
Pre-event: 1%