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Live prediction market odds for MA-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MA-04 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Jake Auchincloss (D)98¢1.02xPolymarket USTom Stalcup (R)3¢33.33xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Jake Auchincloss (D) about a 97.1% chance. Tom Stalcup (R) follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.9 percentage points.

Traders give Jake Auchincloss (D) about a 97.1% chance. Tom Stalcup (R) follows at 2.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.9 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MA-04 House election. This market resolves based on the official election results announced on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JA
Jake Auchincloss (D)
97%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket US98¢
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket US1.02x98¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
96.6%94¢99¢1¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
97.5%97¢98¢2¢3¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.3%97¢97¢3¢3¢
TS
Tom Stalcup (R)
2%
Kalshi3¢
Polymarket US3¢
Polymarket3¢
Kalshi35.71x3¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.9%2¢3¢97¢98¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
2.5%2¢3¢97¢98¢
PolymarketPolymarket
1.8%1¢3¢97¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Jake Auchincloss (D)

Jake Auchincloss is the U.S. Representative for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district, serving his third term in the House of Representatives. Before his congressional tenure, he was a member of the Newton City Council from 2015 to 2021. His military service as a Marine Corps officer and his leadership roles in Congress underscore his commitment to public service.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.9%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Jake Auchincloss (D)

97.1% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MA-04 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MA-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the MA-04 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

Which platforms are tracking the MA-04 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking this election market.

What factors influence the odds for the MA-04 House winner?

Odds are influenced by candidate campaigning, voter sentiment, and polling data leading up to the election.

What does the MA-04 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MA-04 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Jake Auchincloss (D): 96.6¢ on Kalshi, 97.3¢ on Polymarket, 97.5¢ on Polymarket US; Tom Stalcup (R): 1.9¢ on Kalshi, 1.8¢ on Polymarket, 2.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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