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Live prediction market odds for Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.

Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

2026-09-01

About This Market

Share

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate and reflect voter sentiment in the state leading up to the election.

Ed Markey leads the “Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee” event at 83.3% implied probability. Other contenders include Seth Moulton (14.8%), Ayanna Pressley (1.8%), and Alexander Rikleen (0.6%). A 9.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
No price history available

Live Markets

3 platforms
EM
Ed MarkeyARB
84% Avg
Kalshi86¢
Polymarket89¢
PredictIt80¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
85.5%85¢86¢14¢15¢
PolymarketPolymarket
87.0%85¢89¢11¢15¢
PredictItPredictIt
78.0%76¢80¢20¢24¢
SM
Seth MoultonARB
16% Avg
Kalshi16¢
Polymarket13¢
PredictIt24¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
15.0%14¢16¢84¢86¢
PolymarketPolymarket
10.5%8¢13¢87¢92¢
PredictItPredictIt
21.5%19¢24¢76¢81¢
AP
Ayanna Pressley
2% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.5%1¢4¢96¢99¢
AR
Alexander Rikleen
0% Avg
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket0¢
PlatformImplied %Yes — Bid / AskNo — Bid / Ask
KalshiKalshi
0.5%0¢1¢99¢100¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.0%0¢0¢100¢100¢

Candidate Spotlight

About Ed Markey

Ed Markey is the junior U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, serving since 2013. He previously represented Massachusetts in the U.S. House of Representatives for 37 years. He is running for re-election in 2026.

About Seth Moulton

Seth Moulton is the U.S. Representative for Massachusetts's 6th congressional district. He served four tours in Iraq as a Marine Corps officer. He announced his candidacy for the 2026 U.S. Senate Democratic primary in Massachusetts on October 15, 2025.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Polling data, candidate endorsements, and campaign events significantly impact the odds. Additionally, shifts in public opinion and national political trends can alter market perceptions.

When is the election for the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

The election for the Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee is scheduled for September 1, 2026. This timeline allows candidates ample opportunity to campaign and engage with voters.

How do prediction markets work for political events like this?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future outcomes. Prices reflect the collective beliefs about the likelihood of various candidates winning the nomination.

What is "Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?" and why does it matter?

Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Ed Markey leads at 83% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Seth Moulton at 15%, Ayanna Pressley at 2%, Alexander Rikleen at 1%.

What is moving the odds on "Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?"?

Ed Markey currently leads at 83% implied probability. Behind Ed Markey, Seth Moulton at 15% and Ayanna Pressley at 2% and Alexander Rikleen at 1% are the next closest contenders. The 9.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread9.5%
Platforms3
Candidates4
Leader

Ed Markey

83.3% avg

Market Rulebook: Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Ayanna Pressley wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Massachusetts Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?