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Live prediction market odds for MD-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MD-03 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Sarah Elfreth (D)96¢1.04xPolymarket USBerney Flowers (R)6¢16.67xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Sarah Elfreth (D) about a 95.2% chance. Berney Flowers (R) follows at 4.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Sarah Elfreth (D) about a 95.2% chance. Berney Flowers (R) follows at 4.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MD-03 House election. This market resolves based on the official election results on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
SE
Sarah Elfreth (D)
95%
Kalshi97¢
Polymarket US96¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
94.1%91¢97¢3¢9¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.0%95¢96¢4¢5¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.5%95¢96¢4¢5¢
BF
Berney Flowers (R)ARB
4%
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket US6¢
Polymarket3¢
Polymarket US16.67x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.2%4¢7¢93¢97¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
5.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.7%2¢3¢97¢98¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Sarah Elfreth (D)

Sarah Elfreth is the current U.S. Representative for Maryland's 3rd Congressional District. She previously served as a Maryland State Senator from 2019 to 2024. Elfreth's extensive legislative experience and strong electoral performance make her a prominent figure in Maryland politics.

About Berney Flowers (R)

Berney Flowers is a Republican candidate for Maryland's 3rd Congressional District in the 2026 election. He previously served as an inter-agency technical advisor for NORAD and USNORTHCOM. His military background and commitment to public service make him a notable contender in this race.

Smart Trade Router

$
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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Sarah Elfreth (D)

95.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MD-03 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MD-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MD-03 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the MD-03 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

What factors influence the odds in the MD-03 House winner market?

Odds are affected by candidate campaigning, polling data, and voter sentiment as the election date approaches.

Which platforms are tracking the MD-03 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking this election market.

What does the MD-03 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MD-03 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Sarah Elfreth (D): 94.1¢ on Kalshi, 95.5¢ on Polymarket, 96.0¢ on Polymarket US; Berney Flowers (R): 5.2¢ on Kalshi, 2.7¢ on Polymarket, 5.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Trader up $131K lifetime bet $3.7K on No at 96¢

2d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the MD-03 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →