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Live prediction market odds for MD-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MD-04 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Glenn Ivey (D)97¢1.03xPolymarket USGeorge McDermott (R)2¢50.00xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Glenn Ivey (D) about a 97.0% chance. George McDermott (R) follows at 1.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.1 percentage points.

Traders give Glenn Ivey (D) about a 97.0% chance. George McDermott (R) follows at 1.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.1 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MD-04 House race, set for November 3, 2026. The market resolves based on the official election results announced by the Maryland State Board of Elections following the voting process on that date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
GI
Glenn Ivey (D)
97%
Kalshi99¢
Polymarket US97¢
Polymarket98¢
Polymarket US1.03x97¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
97.4%96¢99¢1¢4¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.0%96¢97¢3¢4¢
PolymarketPolymarket
97.4%97¢98¢2¢3¢
GM
George McDermott (R)
1%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket US2¢
Polymarket1¢
Polymarket US50.00x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.6%0¢4¢96¢100¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
1.0%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
0.5%0¢1¢100¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Glenn Ivey (D)

Glenn Ivey is the U.S. Representative for Maryland's 4th congressional district, serving since January 3, 2023. He previously served as State's Attorney for Prince George's County from 2003 to 2011. Ivey has a background in law and public service, having also been Chair of the Maryland Public Service Commission from 1998 to 2000.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.1%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Glenn Ivey (D)

97.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MD-04 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MD-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MD-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the MD-04 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

Which platforms are tracking the MD-04 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are currently tracking the MD-04 House winner market.

How does the market determine the winner of the MD-04 House race?

The market resolves based on the official results declared by the Maryland State Board of Elections after the election.

What does the MD-04 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MD-04 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Glenn Ivey (D): 97.4¢ on Kalshi, 97.4¢ on Polymarket, 96.0¢ on Polymarket US; George McDermott (R): 2.6¢ on Kalshi, 0.5¢ on Polymarket, 1.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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