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Live prediction market odds for MI-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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MI-03 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Hillary Scholten (D)94¢1.06xPolymarket USTerri DeBoer (R)9¢11.11xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Hillary Scholten (D) about a 93.9% chance. Terri DeBoer (R) follows at 6.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.2 percentage points.

Traders give Hillary Scholten (D) about a 93.9% chance. Terri DeBoer (R) follows at 6.7%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.2 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MI-03 House race in the upcoming 2026 elections. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
HS
Hillary Scholten (D)
94%
Kalshi94¢
Polymarket US94¢
Polymarket95¢
Polymarket US1.06x94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
93.1%92¢94¢6¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.0%92¢94¢6¢8¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
TD
Terri DeBoer (R)ARB
7%
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket US9¢
Polymarket6¢
Polymarket US11.11x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.2%5¢9¢91¢95¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
8.0%8¢9¢91¢92¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.8%4¢6¢94¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Hillary Scholten (D)

Hillary Scholten is the U.S. Representative for Michigan's 3rd congressional district, serving since January 3, 2023. Before her election, she was an attorney at the U.S. Department of Justice and clerked for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. She is the first woman to represent Michigan's 3rd district in Congress.

About Terri DeBoer (R)

Terri DeBoer is a Republican candidate for Michigan's 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives. She retired from a 30-year career as a meteorologist in West Michigan in 2023. DeBoer aims to represent West Michigan's interests in Congress, focusing on issues like affordable healthcare, economic growth, and energy independence.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.2%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Hillary Scholten (D)

93.9% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MI-03 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MI-3 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MI-03 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the MI-03 House race?

Odds can be affected by candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Additionally, polling data and endorsements play a crucial role in shaping market perceptions.

How often do the odds change for this election?

Odds can fluctuate frequently as new information emerges, such as debates, campaign events, and shifts in public opinion. Major news events or controversies can also lead to rapid changes in market sentiment.

What is at stake in the MI-03 House race?

The outcome of this race could determine party control in the House of Representatives, impacting legislative priorities. It also serves as a barometer for broader political trends leading into the 2026 elections.

What does the MI-03 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MI-03 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Hillary Scholten (D): 93.1¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Terri DeBoer (R): 7.2¢ on Kalshi, 4.8¢ on Polymarket, 8.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Democrats Hit 89% in MI-03 House Market as 16-Point Surge Defies News VacuumA 72%-to-89% jump in three days with no polling, fundraising, or candidate news driving it raises questions about thin-liquidity distortion.Jun 26, 2026Scholten Re-Election Odds Hit 85% With No District-Level CatalystDemocrats jumped 8 points in three days in MI-03; Scholten outraised her likely GOP opponent 8-to-1 at $1.88M vs. $242K.Jun 24, 2026Republicans Priced as MI-03 Favorites Two Months Before PrimaryA 24-point surge puts Republicans at 52% in MI-03, though Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 77 points on the same race.Jun 9, 2026