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Live prediction market odds for MI-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

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MI-04 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

Bill Huizenga (R)52¢1.92xPolymarket USSean McCann (D)47¢2.13xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Bill Huizenga (R) about a 52.5% chance. Sean McCann (D) follows at 46.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Traders give Bill Huizenga (R) about a 52.5% chance. Sean McCann (D) follows at 46.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MI-04 House election set for November 2026. This race is crucial as it could impact the balance of power in Congress, influenced by voter sentiment and party strategies leading up to the election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
BH
Bill Huizenga (R)
53%
Kalshi55¢
Polymarket US52¢
Polymarket53¢
Polymarket US1.92x52¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
54.0%51¢55¢45¢49¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
51.5%51¢52¢48¢49¢
PolymarketPolymarket
52.0%52¢53¢47¢48¢
SM
Sean McCann (D)
46%
Kalshi48¢
Polymarket US47¢
Polymarket49¢
Polymarket US2.13x47¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
45.0%44¢48¢52¢56¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
45.0%45¢47¢53¢55¢
PolymarketPolymarket
48.5%48¢49¢51¢52¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Bill Huizenga (R)

Bill Huizenga is the U.S. Representative for Michigan's 4th Congressional District, serving since January 2023. He previously represented the 2nd district from 2011 to 2023. Huizenga is a member of the Republican Party and serves on the House Financial Services and Foreign Affairs Committees.

About Sean McCann (D)

Sean McCann is a Michigan State Senator representing the 19th district. He previously served in the Michigan House of Representatives and on the Kalamazoo City Commission. McCann is running for the U.S. House of Representatives in Michigan's 4th Congressional District, aiming to leverage his extensive legislative experience to serve the community.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Bill Huizenga (R)

52.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MI-04 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MI-4 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MI-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors could influence the outcome of the MI-04 House election?

Voter turnout, party affiliation, and campaign strategies will play significant roles in determining the election outcome. Additionally, local issues and national trends may sway public opinion.

How do prediction markets assess the likelihood of candidates winning?

Prediction markets aggregate bets from participants, reflecting their beliefs about the probabilities of various outcomes. As new information emerges, such as polling data or candidate announcements, the odds can fluctuate.

What is the significance of the MI-04 House seat in the broader election context?

The MI-04 House seat is pivotal for both parties as it contributes to the overall composition of the House of Representatives. Control of this seat could influence legislative priorities and party power dynamics.

What does the MI-04 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MI-04 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Bill Huizenga (R): 54.0¢ on Kalshi, 52.0¢ on Polymarket, 51.5¢ on Polymarket US; Sean McCann (D): 45.0¢ on Kalshi, 48.5¢ on Polymarket, 45.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

MI-04 Republican Odds Hit 58% as Bettors Price In Huizenga's Primary WinHuizenga leads McCann 48%-42% in the only public poll. Bettors pushed Republican MI-04 odds to 58%, up 11 points in three days, after both nominees cleared their August 4 primaries.Aug 28, 2026McCann Poll Shows MI-04 Tied, But His Market Odds Drop 8 PointsMcCann's August 22 internal poll shows a 48-45 lead over Huizenga. Independent bettors have moved the other way, cutting Democratic odds from 54% to 45% in three days.Aug 25, 2026McCann Falls to 36% to Win MI-04 as Markets Favor HuizengaMcCann shed 9 points in 3 days on Kalshi and Polymarket. His fundraising topped $1.58M through March, but the district leans Republican.Aug 9, 2026Can McCann Flip MI-04 Despite Huizenga's 6-Point Poll Lead?Prediction markets price Democrats at 48% in a district Cook rates 'Likely Republican,' with McCann holding a 16-to-1 fundraising edge over his primary rival.Jul 11, 2026