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Live prediction market odds for MI-05 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MI-05 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Tim Walberg (R)93¢1.08xKalshiChristian Vukasovich (D)9¢11.11xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Tim Walberg (R) about a 93.5% chance. Christian Vukasovich (D) follows at 6.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Tim Walberg (R) about a 93.5% chance. Christian Vukasovich (D) follows at 6.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MI-05 House election. The outcome will be determined on November 3, 2026, based on the final vote count in the district.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
TW
Tim Walberg (R)
94%
Kalshi93¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket94¢
Kalshi1.08x93¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
92.5%92¢93¢7¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
CV
Christian Vukasovich (D)
6%
Kalshi9¢
—
Polymarket6¢
Kalshi11.11x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
6.7%6¢9¢91¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
6.0%6¢6¢94¢94¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Tim Walberg (R)

Tim Walberg is the current U.S. Representative for Michigan's 5th Congressional District, serving since 2011. He previously served in the Michigan House of Representatives from 1983 to 1998. His extensive tenure in Congress and consistent electoral successes underscore his strong position in the district.

About Christian Vukasovich (D)

Christian Vukasovich is a Democratic candidate for Michigan's 5th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House election. He has served as an assistant professor of Communication and Media Studies at the University of Southern Maine and worked as a union organizer with the American Association of University Professors. His background as a teacher, union organizer, and bricklayer informs his campaign focused on working-class issues, healthcare, and education.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Tim Walberg (R)

93.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MI-05 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MI-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MI-05 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will the MI-05 House election take place?

The MI-05 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the general election when voters will cast their ballots.

What factors influence the odds for the MI-05 House winner?

Odds for the MI-05 House winner are influenced by polling data, candidate announcements, and campaign events leading up to the election. Changes in voter sentiment can also impact market prices.

How is the winner of the MI-05 House election determined?

The winner is determined by the total number of votes received in the MI-05 district during the election. The candidate with the highest vote count will be declared the winner.

What does the MI-05 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MI-05 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Tim Walberg (R): 92.5¢ on Kalshi, 93.5¢ on Polymarket, 94.5¢ on Polymarket US; Christian Vukasovich (D): 6.7¢ on Kalshi, 6.0¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Walberg Drops 8 Points in MI-05 Despite R+21 ForecastWalberg's implied probability fell from 94% to 86% in three days, with Kalshi pricing him 15 points below Polymarket and no public challenger on record.Sep 25, 2026