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Live prediction market odds for MI-07 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt and Predict.fun.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / PredictIt / Predict.fun

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MI-07 House winner?

2026-11-04

Best price · tap to trade

William Lawrence (D)59¢1.69xKalshiTom Barrett (R)42¢2.38xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give William Lawrence (D) about a 58.5% chance. Tom Barrett (R) follows at 42.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.5 percentage points.

Traders give William Lawrence (D) about a 58.5% chance. Tom Barrett (R) follows at 42.0%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 5.5 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the MI-07 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. The outcome will influence party control in Congress and shape legislative priorities in the following term.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

5 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Predict.fun
Best price
WL
William Lawrence (D)ARB
59%
Kalshi59¢
Polymarket US61¢
Polymarket57¢
PredictIt75¢
Predict.fun58¢
Kalshi1.69x59¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
58.5%58¢59¢41¢42¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
60.5%60¢61¢39¢40¢
PolymarketPolymarket
56.5%56¢57¢43¢44¢
PredictItPredictIt
55.0%53¢75¢25¢47¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
57.3%57¢58¢42¢43¢
TB
Tom Barrett (R)
42%
Kalshi42¢
Polymarket US42¢
Polymarket45¢
PredictIt43¢
Predict.fun47¢
Kalshi2.38x42¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
41.0%41¢42¢58¢59¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
41.0%41¢42¢58¢59¢
PolymarketPolymarket
44.0%43¢45¢55¢57¢
PredictItPredictIt
40.0%21¢43¢57¢79¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
44.5%42¢47¢53¢58¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictItPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About William Lawrence (D)

William Lawrence is a political organizer and housing advocate from Lansing, Michigan. He co-founded the Sunrise Movement, a national organization advocating for climate action and clean energy investments. Lawrence's extensive experience in grassroots organizing and his focus on affordable housing and economic security make him a significant contender in Michigan's 7th Congressional District.

About Tom Barrett (R)

Tom Barrett is the current U.S. Representative for Michigan's 7th Congressional District, serving his first term in Congress. Before his election to Congress, he served in the Michigan House and Senate, advocating for veterans and infrastructure. His military background and legislative experience make him a significant figure in Michigan politics.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread5.5%
Platforms5
Candidates2
Leader

William Lawrence (D)

58.5% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MI-07 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MI-7 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MI-07 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the MI-07 House winner?

Polling data, candidate popularity, and campaign funding are key factors. Additionally, local issues and voter turnout can significantly impact the election outcome.

How often do odds change for the MI-07 House winner market?

Odds can fluctuate frequently based on new information, such as debates, endorsements, and shifts in public opinion. Major events or scandals can also lead to rapid changes.

What is the significance of the MI-07 House race?

The MI-07 House race is crucial as it could determine the balance of power in the House of Representatives. A shift in control can affect legislative agendas and national policies.

What does the MI-07 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MI-07 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are William Lawrence (D): 58.5¢ on Kalshi, 56.5¢ on Polymarket, 55.0¢ on PredictIt, 60.5¢ on Polymarket US, 57.3¢ on Predict.fun; Tom Barrett (R): 41.0¢ on Kalshi, 44.0¢ on Polymarket, 40.0¢ on PredictIt, 41.0¢ on Polymarket US, 44.5¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

DCCC Backing Pushes Barrett to 31% Underdog in MI-07Barrett fell 11 points in 3 days after DCCC added Lawrence to Red to Blue. His $6.3M war chest has not reversed the slide.Sep 26, 2026Cash Gap Widens as Lawrence's MI-07 Odds Fall 10 PointsDemocratic implied probability slid from 66% to 56% in three days. Barrett held $2.8M and no primary opponents while Lawrence survived a three-way contest.Sep 22, 2026Lawrence Wins MI-07 Primary, Lifting Democratic Odds to 60%Progressive William Lawrence beat moderate Bridget Brink in the MI-07 Democratic primary. Prediction markets now price Democrats at 60% against incumbent Tom Barrett.Sep 17, 2026Will Lawrence's MI-07 Odds Recover to 63% After Post-Primary SelloffDemocratic implied probability rebounded 11 points in three days after bottoming at 52% following Lawrence's progressive primary win over Bridget Brink and Matt Maasdam.Sep 15, 2026