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Live prediction market odds for MI-09 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MI-09 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Lisa McClain (R)94¢1.06xPolymarket USRay Pooley (D)6¢16.67xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Lisa McClain (R) about a 94.6% chance. Ray Pooley (D) follows at 5.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Lisa McClain (R) about a 94.6% chance. Ray Pooley (D) follows at 5.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MI-09 House race. This market resolves based on the official election results announced on November 3, 2026, after all votes are counted and certified.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
LM
Lisa McClain (R)
95%
Kalshi95¢
Polymarket US94¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.06x94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
94.8%92¢95¢5¢8¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
93.5%93¢94¢6¢7¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.5%95¢96¢4¢5¢
RP
Ray Pooley (D)
5%
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket US6¢
Polymarket6¢
Polymarket US16.67x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.8%4¢8¢92¢96¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
5.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
5.5%5¢6¢94¢95¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Lisa McClain (R)

Lisa McClain is the Chair of the House Republican Conference, representing Michigan's 9th Congressional District. She previously served as Secretary of the House Republican Conference from 2023 to 2025. McClain has been a member of the U.S. House of Representatives since 2021, holding leadership positions and serving on the House Committee on Financial Services and the Committee on Education and Workforce.

About Ray Pooley (D)

Ray Pooley is a Democratic candidate for Michigan's 9th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He is a third-generation manufacturer with 15 years of experience as a CNC machinist and programmer. Pooley is campaigning to bring manufacturing jobs back to blue-collar workers in the district.

Smart Trade Router

$
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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Lisa McClain (R)

94.6% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MI-09 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MI-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MI-09 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does the MI-09 House race take place?

The MI-09 House race is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date marks the general election when voters will cast their ballots.

How will the winner of the MI-09 House race be determined?

The winner will be determined by the official election results released after all votes are counted. Certification of these results will finalize the outcome.

What platforms are tracking the MI-09 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the MI-09 House winner. They provide real-time odds based on market sentiment leading up to the election.

What does the MI-09 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MI-09 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Lisa McClain (R): 94.8¢ on Kalshi, 95.5¢ on Polymarket, 93.5¢ on Polymarket US; Ray Pooley (D): 5.8¢ on Kalshi, 5.5¢ on Polymarket, 5.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction Market Track Record

Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan in 2026?LOSTPre-event: 0%

Historical Track Record

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Republican nominee for Governor in Michigan in 2026?

Resolved

2026-05-01

LOSTLisa McClain (R)
Pre-event: 0%