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Live prediction market odds for MI-11 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MI-11 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Jeremy Moss (D)95¢1.05xPolymarket USEthan Baker (R)4¢25.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Jeremy Moss (D) about a 95.2% chance. Ethan Baker (R) follows at 4.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.4 percentage points.

Traders give Jeremy Moss (D) about a 95.2% chance. Ethan Baker (R) follows at 4.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.4 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MI-11 House race. The market resolves based on the official election results on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the election date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JM
Jeremy Moss (D)
95%
Kalshi98¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket97¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.6%94¢98¢2¢7¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
95.5%95¢97¢3¢6¢
EB
Ethan Baker (R)ARB
4%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket US6¢
Polymarket3¢
Kalshi23.81x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
4.1%1¢4¢96¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.6%2¢3¢97¢98¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Jeremy Moss (D)

Jeremy Moss is a Democratic State Senator representing Michigan's 7th district. He previously served as the Assistant Democratic Leader in the Michigan Senate and as the House Democratic Whip in the Michigan House of Representatives. Moss is known for his leadership in advancing LGBTQ rights and election reforms in Michigan.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.4%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Jeremy Moss (D)

95.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MI-11 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MI-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MI-11 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the MI-11 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.

Which platforms are tracking the MI-11 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the MI-11 House winner.

What factors influence the odds in the MI-11 House race market?

Odds are influenced by candidate campaigning, voter sentiment, and polling data leading up to the election.

What does the MI-11 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MI-11 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Jeremy Moss (D): 95.6¢ on Kalshi, 95.5¢ on Polymarket, 94.5¢ on Polymarket US; Ethan Baker (R): 4.1¢ on Kalshi, 2.6¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds

Prediction Market Track Record

MI-11 Democratic nominee?WONPre-event: 93%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

MI-11 Democratic nominee?

Resolved

2026-08-04

WONJeremy Moss (D)
Pre-event: 93%