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Live prediction market odds for Michigan Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt and Predict.fun.

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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt / Predict.fun

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Michigan Senate winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Abdul El-Sayed (D)72¢1.39xKalshiMike Rogers (R)29¢3.45xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Abdul El-Sayed (D) about a 71.3% chance. Mike Rogers (R) follows at 29.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Traders give Abdul El-Sayed (D) about a 71.3% chance. Mike Rogers (R) follows at 29.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Predict.fun. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.5 percentage points.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Michigan Senate winner for the upcoming 2026 election. This race is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate and shape legislative priorities for years to come.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Predict.fun
Best price
AE
Abdul El-Sayed (D)ARB
71%
Kalshi72¢
Polymarket71¢
PredictIt75¢
Predict.fun72¢
Kalshi1.39x72¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
72.0%71¢72¢28¢29¢
PolymarketPolymarket
70.5%70¢71¢29¢30¢
PredictItPredictIt
73.0%73¢75¢25¢27¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
71.5%71¢72¢28¢29¢
MR
Mike Rogers (R)
29%
Kalshi29¢
Polymarket30¢
PredictIt30¢
Predict.fun30¢
Kalshi3.45x29¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
29.0%28¢29¢71¢72¢
PolymarketPolymarket
29.5%29¢30¢70¢71¢
PredictItPredictIt
29.0%29¢30¢70¢71¢
Predict.funPredict.fun
29.2%28¢30¢70¢72¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictItPredict.funPredict.fun

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Elissa Slotkin is the current U.S. Senator from Michigan, serving since January 2025. She previously served as a three-term U.S. Representative and a CIA analyst. Her victory in the 2024 Senate election is relevant to this prediction market.

About Mike Rogers (R)

Mike Rogers is the Republican nominee for Michigan's U.S. Senate seat in the 2026 election. He served as a U.S. Representative for Michigan's 8th congressional district from 2001 to 2015 and was the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024. Rogers has a history of bipartisan outreach and has been endorsed by the Senate Leadership Fund, which committed $45 million to support his campaign in Michigan's Senate race.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.5%
Platforms4
Candidates2
Leader

Abdul El-Sayed (D)

71.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Michigan Senate winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Predict.fun.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Michigan for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Predict.funPredict.fun
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification. Created At: 2026-03-02T12:00:49.294573259Z

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Michigan Senate winner?

Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising capabilities, and polling data. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can sway voter sentiment leading up to the election.

How do prediction markets work for political events like the Michigan Senate race?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom of market participants regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.

Why is the Michigan Senate race considered pivotal?

The outcome could determine which party controls the Senate, impacting legislative agendas and confirmations. Michigan's political landscape is often seen as a bellwether for national trends.

What does the Michigan Senate winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Predict.fun in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Michigan Senate winner odds?

The latest available prices are Abdul El-Sayed (D): 72.0¢ on Kalshi, 70.5¢ on Polymarket, 73.0¢ on PredictIt, 71.5¢ on Predict.fun; Mike Rogers (R): 29.0¢ on Kalshi, 29.5¢ on Polymarket, 29.0¢ on PredictIt, 29.2¢ on Predict.fun. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily fading Mike Rogers (R)

Smart Money Consensus$5.9K
$5.9KNo
Smart Traders Split3
3No
KalshiBuy No at 72¢Best price among US-regulated venues.

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Yes$291 · 1 whale
No$116 · 1 whale
Mike Rogers (R)
No$5.9K · 3 whales

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Smart Money Feed
Full Feed

Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $765K lifetime bet $5.4K on No at 71¢

22h ago
PolymarketKalshiWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $746K lifetime bet $863 on Yes at 70¢

1d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $772K lifetime bet $631 on No at 71¢

1d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $772K lifetime bet $7.1K on No at 71¢

1d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Trade on Kalshi →

Trader up $340K lifetime bet $602 on No at 29¢

2d ago
PolymarketKalshiWill the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Trade on Kalshi →

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Michigan Senate Volume Jumps 7x as El-Sayed Unity Push Lifts Odds to 72%On Sept 22, $194K traded across 1,393 trades, the market's largest single day in 29 sessions, as Democratic consolidation drew fresh trader attention.Sep 23, 2026El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary; Democrat Senate Odds Fall to 59%El-Sayed beat Stevens by 1 point despite $50M in AIPAC-backed spending against him; he now faces Rogers in a race bettors call a toss-up.Aug 5, 2026Democrats Fall to 50% Favorite in Michigan 2026 Senate MarketA three-way primary deadlock and a Stevens-Rogers general poll showing a 0.7-point margin drove a 19-point probability collapse in three days.Jun 9, 2026