Live prediction market odds for Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
Resolved 2026-08-11
This market resolved on 2026-08-11. Michele Tafoya was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the race for the Minnesota Republican Senate nominee.
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the race for the Minnesota Republican Senate nominee. This contest is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in the Senate during the 2026 elections, with candidates vying for critical support from party factions and voters.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
Michele TafoyaWINNER | 99% | 100% | 99% |
Adam Schwarze | 1% | 50% | 1% |
Tom Weiler | 0% | 50% | 1% |
Michele Tafoya
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Michele Tafoya wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and endorsements play crucial roles in shaping the odds. Additionally, polling data and voter sentiment can significantly impact predictions as the election date approaches.
The nominee's success could either strengthen or weaken the Republican presence in the Senate. Given the current political climate, every seat is vital for achieving a majority.
The primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026. This date is critical as it determines which candidate will represent the party in the general election.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
The last available prices are Michele Tafoya: 99.4¢ on Kalshi, 99.5¢ on Polymarket, 99.0¢ on PredictIt; Adam Schwarze: 0.7¢ on Kalshi, 50.0¢ on Polymarket, 1.0¢ on PredictIt; Tom Weiler: 0.1¢ on Kalshi, 50.0¢ on Polymarket, 1.0¢ on PredictIt. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
