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Live prediction market odds for Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi.

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Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

2026-08-11

About This Market

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner: current odds are unavailable. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner: current odds are unavailable. Compare prices from Kalshi.

Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner for the upcoming election on August 11, 2026. This primary is crucial as it will determine the Republican candidate who will compete for a Senate seat, impacting party dynamics and strategies leading into the general election.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

1 platform
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
AS
Adam Schwarze
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.1%0¢100¢0¢100¢
AG
Alycia Gruenhagen
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.1%0¢100¢0¢100¢
DH
David Hann
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.1%0¢100¢0¢100¢
JC
Julia Coleman
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.1%0¢100¢0¢100¢
KR
Kristin Robbins
single venue
Kalshi100¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
0.1%0¢100¢0¢100¢
KalshiKalshi

Candidate Spotlight

About Adam Schwarze

Adam Schwarze is a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate seat from Minnesota in the 2026 election. He is a former Navy SEAL. He is relevant to this prediction market as a contender in the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary.

About Michele Tafoya

Michele Tafoya is a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota, seeking the nomination to replace retiring Democratic Senator Tina Smith. She previously served as a sideline reporter for NBC's Sunday Night Football from 2011 to 2022. Her extensive experience in high-pressure environments and her active involvement in Minnesota Republican politics make her a notable contender in this primary race.

About Royce White

Royce White is a Republican candidate for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota. He was the GOP nominee in the 2024 Senate race, losing to incumbent Amy Klobuchar. His candidacy is relevant to this prediction market as he seeks to secure the Republican nomination for the upcoming election.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.0%
Platforms1
Candidates9
Leader

Adam Schwarze

0.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If Julia Coleman wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Minnesota Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
Democratic PartyRepublican Party
PolymarketPolymarket
Primary Rule

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota. If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution Oracles
UMA Optimistic OracleConsensus of Sources

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary?

The primary will decide which Republican candidate will represent the party in the Senate race. This decision can influence the party's overall strategy and voter turnout in the general election.

How do prediction markets reflect candidate chances in the primary?

Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning. As new information emerges, such as polling data and endorsements, the odds can fluctuate significantly.

What factors can influence the odds in this primary market?

Factors include candidate debate performances, fundraising success, and shifts in voter sentiment. Additionally, external events like national political trends can also impact the odds.

What does the Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Minnesota Republican Senate Primary Winner odds?

The latest available prices are Adam Schwarze: 0.1¢ on Kalshi; Alycia Gruenhagen: 0.1¢ on Kalshi; David Hann: 0.1¢ on Kalshi; Julia Coleman: 0.1¢ on Kalshi. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds
No price history available

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Royce White Falls to 4% to Win Minnesota GOP Senate PrimaryWhite held 18% three days ago. His party publicly demanded he exit after a Hennepin County no-contact order tied to alleged threats against his ex-wife.Jun 19, 2026Royce White Climbs to 18% to Win MN Senate Primary Despite GOP Backing RivalWhite jumped from 3% to 18% in three days. Kalshi and Polymarket diverge by 25 points, suggesting thin liquidity rather than a consensus shift.Jun 16, 2026Can Schwarze's Convention Win Overcome a 48-Point Poll Deficit?Schwarze won 62% of delegate votes but polled at 4% in May. Prediction markets now price him at 16% to win the August 11 primary.Jun 1, 2026Schwarze Climbs to 14% in MN GOP Senate Primary With No CatalystSchwarze jumped 9 points to 14% in 72 hours despite 4% polling and $223K cash on hand. Kalshi shows 18% vs. Polymarket's 9%.Apr 26, 2026

Prediction Market Track Record

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?LOSTPre-event: 3%

Prediction Market Track Record

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?WONPre-event: 96%

Historical Track Record

Scroll to view past markets

Minnesota Republican Senate nominee?

Resolved

2026-08-11

WONMichele Tafoya
Pre-event: 96%