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Live prediction market odds for MN-06 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MN-06 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Tom Emmer (R)92¢1.09xPolymarket USDoug Chapin (D)9¢11.11xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Tom Emmer (R) about a 91.2% chance. Doug Chapin (D) follows at 8.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.7 percentage points.

Traders give Tom Emmer (R) about a 91.2% chance. Doug Chapin (D) follows at 8.1%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 0.7 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MN-06 House election. The market resolves based on the official results announced after the election on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigns and voter sentiment leading up to the vote.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
TE
Tom Emmer (R)
91%
Kalshi93¢
Polymarket US92¢
Polymarket92¢
Polymarket US1.09x92¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
91.1%90¢93¢7¢10¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
91.0%90¢92¢8¢10¢
PolymarketPolymarket
91.5%91¢92¢8¢9¢
DC
Doug Chapin (D)
8%
Kalshi10¢
Polymarket US9¢
Polymarket10¢
Polymarket US11.11x9¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
7.8%6¢10¢90¢94¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
8.0%8¢9¢91¢92¢
PolymarketPolymarket
8.5%7¢10¢90¢93¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Tom Emmer (R)

Tom Emmer is the House Majority Whip, representing Minnesota's 6th Congressional District. He previously chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee from 2019 to 2023. Emmer is recognized for his leadership in the House Republican Conference and his advocacy for the cryptocurrency industry.

About Doug Chapin (D)

Doug Chapin is a nationally recognized election law expert and policy researcher. He led The Pew Charitable Trusts' elections team and founded electionline.org, a nonpartisan source for election policy news. He is running for Congress to bring real leadership and solutions to Minnesota's Sixth District.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread0.7%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Tom Emmer (R)

91.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MN-06 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MN-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MN-06 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the date of the MN-06 House election?

The MN-06 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is when the official results will determine the winner.

How do the odds in this market change?

Odds in this market change based on candidate campaigning, polling data, and public sentiment. Events such as debates or endorsements can significantly impact the odds.

What platforms are tracking the MN-06 House election?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking the MN-06 House election. These platforms provide real-time odds based on market activity.

What does the MN-06 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MN-06 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Tom Emmer (R): 91.1¢ on Kalshi, 91.5¢ on Polymarket, 91.0¢ on Polymarket US; Doug Chapin (D): 7.8¢ on Kalshi, 8.5¢ on Polymarket, 8.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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