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Live prediction market odds for MN-08 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MN-08 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Pete Stauber (R)88¢1.14xPolymarket USTrina Swanson (D)12¢8.33xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Pete Stauber (R) about a 87.2% chance. Trina Swanson (D) follows at 12.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Traders give Pete Stauber (R) about a 87.2% chance. Trina Swanson (D) follows at 12.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of Minnesota's 8th Congressional District in the 2026 elections. The outcome will be determined by the election results on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to that date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
PS
Pete Stauber (R)
87%
Kalshi89¢
Polymarket US88¢
Polymarket86¢
Polymarket US1.14x88¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
89.0%87¢89¢11¢13¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
87.0%87¢88¢12¢13¢
PolymarketPolymarket
85.5%85¢86¢14¢15¢
TS
Trina Swanson (D)
13%
Kalshi13¢
Polymarket US12¢
Polymarket14¢
Polymarket US8.33x12¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
13.0%11¢13¢87¢89¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
12.0%11¢12¢88¢89¢
PolymarketPolymarket
13.5%13¢14¢86¢87¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Pete Stauber (R)

Pete Stauber is the U.S. Representative for Minnesota's Eighth Congressional District. He previously served as a St. Louis County Commissioner and Duluth police officer. Stauber chairs the Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, focusing on American energy independence.

About Trina Swanson (D)

Trina Swanson is a Democratic candidate for Minnesota's 8th Congressional District in the 2026 general election. She served nearly two decades at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, rising to director of international operations before retiring in September 2025. Swanson's extensive federal experience and leadership in immigration operations underscore her qualifications for congressional representation.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Pete Stauber (R)

87.2% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MN-08 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MN-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MN-08 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will the winner of MN-08 be determined?

The winner will be decided on November 3, 2026, during the general election. This date is crucial for all candidates competing in the district.

What factors influence the odds for the MN-08 House winner?

Odds are influenced by candidate campaign activities, polling data, and voter engagement in the lead-up to the election. Significant events or debates can also shift market perceptions.

Which platforms are tracking the MN-08 House winner market?

Polymarket and Kalshi are currently tracking the MN-08 House winner market. These platforms provide real-time odds based on market sentiment and developments.

What does the MN-08 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MN-08 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Pete Stauber (R): 89.0¢ on Kalshi, 85.5¢ on Polymarket, 87.0¢ on Polymarket US; Trina Swanson (D): 13.0¢ on Kalshi, 13.5¢ on Polymarket, 12.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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