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Live prediction market odds for MO-02 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MO-02 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Ann Wagner (R)74¢1.35xKalshiFred Wellman (D)28¢3.57xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Ann Wagner (R) about a 72.3% chance. Fred Wellman (D) follows at 28.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Traders give Ann Wagner (R) about a 72.3% chance. Fred Wellman (D) follows at 28.3%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 3.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MO-02 House race. The outcome will be determined on November 3, 2026, when voters cast their ballots in this congressional election, with odds fluctuating based on campaign developments and candidate activities leading up to the date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
AW
Ann Wagner (R)ARB
72%
Kalshi74¢
Polymarket US75¢
Polymarket72¢
Kalshi1.35x74¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
71.0%71¢74¢26¢29¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
74.5%74¢75¢25¢26¢
PolymarketPolymarket
71.5%71¢72¢28¢29¢
FW
Fred Wellman (D)
28%
Kalshi29¢
Polymarket US28¢
Polymarket29¢
Polymarket US3.57x28¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
29.0%26¢29¢71¢74¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
27.5%27¢28¢72¢73¢
PolymarketPolymarket
28.5%28¢29¢71¢72¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Ann Wagner (R)

Ann Wagner is the U.S. Representative for Missouri's 2nd congressional district, serving since 2013. She previously chaired the Missouri Republican Party from 1999 to 2005 and was the U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg from 2005 to 2009. Wagner has a longstanding record in public service and Republican leadership.

About Fred Wellman (D)

Fred Wellman is a U.S. Army veteran and former Executive Director of the Lincoln Project. He founded ScoutComms, a Benefit Corporation supporting veterans and military families. His extensive military and leadership experience makes him a strong candidate for Missouri's 2nd Congressional District.

Smart Trade Router

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread3.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Ann Wagner (R)

72.3% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MO-02 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MO-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MO-02 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the MO-02 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, coinciding with the general election date.

What factors influence the odds for the MO-02 House race?

Odds are affected by campaign events, candidate announcements, and polling data as the election date approaches.

How is the winner of the MO-02 House race determined?

The winner is determined by the total votes received in the election, with the candidate receiving the most votes declared the winner.

What does the MO-02 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MO-02 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Ann Wagner (R): 71.0¢ on Kalshi, 71.5¢ on Polymarket, 74.5¢ on Polymarket US; Fred Wellman (D): 29.0¢ on Kalshi, 28.5¢ on Polymarket, 27.5¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Resolved Sep 27

Final odds
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Live tracking of high-volume trades from historically profitable accounts.

Trader up $131K lifetime bet $570 on No at 27¢

3d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $131K lifetime bet $1.1K on Yes at 27¢

3d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $131K lifetime bet $675 on Yes at 27¢

3d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $50.8K lifetime bet $4.6K on Yes at 71¢

6d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Trader up $50.8K lifetime sold $534 of Yes at 75¢

6d ago
PolymarketPolymarket USWill the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?Trade on Polymarket US →

Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Wellman Hits 31% in MO-02 Despite Court Locking In GOP MapWellman gained 8 points in 72 hours as redistricting coverage nationalized the race, drawing donor and volunteer attention to a seat forecasters rate R+5.3.Sep 26, 2026Court Locks GOP Map in MO-02, Cutting Wellman's Odds to 22%The 8th Circuit blocked a return to old district lines on Sep 21. Wellman's probability fell 8 points in three days; Wagner now holds a ~78% implied edge.Sep 22, 2026