Prediction HuntPrediction.com
Odds
Sports OddsNFL OddsNCAAF OddsMLB OddsTennis OddsElections OddsPolitics OddsEntertainment OddsEconomics OddsCrypto Odds
Futures
NFL FuturesMLB FuturesNCAAF FuturesMidterm Elections
All MarketsTrending
PicksArbitrageSmart MoneyAgentsPaper Trading Simulator
Promos
Best Prediction Market PromosKalshi Promo CodePolymarket Promo Code
Compare
Best Prediction Market Apps
NewsCalculatorsBlogIndustry Data
OverviewDocumentationQuickstartPricing
  • Best price across Kalshi, Polymarket & more
  • Live odds, refreshed in real time
  • Arbitrage alerts
  • Follow the smart money
  • Exclusive sign-up promos
  • Best price across Kalshi, Polymarket & more
  • Live odds, refreshed in real time
  • Arbitrage alerts
  • Follow the smart money
  • Exclusive sign-up promos
Prediction HuntPrediction.com

The home of prediction markets

Markets

  • Sports Odds
  • NFL Odds
  • College Football Odds
  • MLB Odds
  • Tennis Odds
  • Election Odds
  • Politics Odds
  • Entertainment Odds
  • Economics Odds
  • Crypto Odds
  • Results Archive
  • Trending

Edge

  • Picks
  • Smart Money Feed
  • Arbitrage Scanner
  • Paper Trading Simulator
  • AI Agents

Compare

  • Best Prediction Market Apps
  • Best Prediction Market Promos

Resources

  • News
  • Blog
  • Calculators
  • X
  • Discord

API

  • API Overview
  • API Documentation
  • Quickstart
  • API Pricing

This information is for informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always verify resolution criteria and platform rules before trading.

  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use
  • API Terms
PicksSmart MoneyArbitragePromos

Live prediction market odds for MO-04 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
Sign-up bonus

Get a $35 trading bonus

Sign-up bonus on Kalshi.

Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

XTelegramWhatsAppReddit

MO-04 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Mark Alford (R)94¢1.06xPolymarket USJordan Herrera (D)7¢14.29xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Mark Alford (R) about a 93.7% chance. Jordan Herrera (D) follows at 7.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.7 percentage points.

Traders give Mark Alford (R) about a 93.7% chance. Jordan Herrera (D) follows at 7.2%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.7 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MO-04 House election. This market resolves based on the official results of the election held on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate campaigning and voter sentiment leading up to the date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
MA
Mark Alford (R)
94%
Kalshi95¢
Polymarket US94¢
Polymarket93¢
Polymarket US1.06x94¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
94.6%91¢95¢5¢9¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
94.0%93¢94¢6¢7¢
PolymarketPolymarket
92.5%92¢93¢7¢8¢
JH
Jordan Herrera (D)
7%
Kalshi9¢
Polymarket US7¢
Polymarket8¢
Polymarket US14.29x7¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
8.7%5¢9¢91¢95¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%6¢7¢93¢94¢
PolymarketPolymarket
7.0%7¢8¢92¢93¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Mark Alford (R)

Mark Alford is the U.S. Representative for Missouri's 4th Congressional District, serving since January 3, 2023. Before entering politics, he spent 23 years as a television news anchor at WDAF-TV in Kansas City. His extensive experience in media and communication informs his legislative work, particularly in areas related to public information and community engagement.

About Jordan Herrera (D)

Jordan Herrera is a Democratic candidate for Missouri's 4th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. He is an Air Force veteran and former assistant attorney general for Missouri. His campaign focuses on economic freedom, housing affordability, healthcare, and education.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.7%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Mark Alford (R)

93.7% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MO-04 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MO-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MO-04 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the MO-04 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the election takes place. Official results will determine the winner.

How do odds change for the MO-04 House winner market?

Odds fluctuate based on candidate campaigning, public polling, and voter sentiment. Key events such as debates and endorsements can also impact the odds.

What platforms are tracking the MO-04 House winner market?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking this election market. They provide real-time odds based on market activity.

What does the MO-04 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MO-04 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Mark Alford (R): 94.6¢ on Kalshi, 92.5¢ on Polymarket, 94.0¢ on Polymarket US; Jordan Herrera (D): 8.7¢ on Kalshi, 7.0¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

Related Markets

Bulgaria Presidential Election

View

TX-31 House Election Winner

View

TX-21 House Election Winner

View

Minnesota Governor Election Winner

View

Olivia Nicholls vs. Marina Bassols Ribera

Resolved Sep 28

Final odds
Smart Money Positioning (24 hours)
Full Feed

Smart money is heavily buying Mark Alford (R)

Smart Money Consensus$372
$372Mark Alford (R)
Smart Traders Split2
2Mark Alford (R)
Polymarket USBuy Yes at 94¢Best price among US-regulated venues.

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow

Mark Alford (R)
Yes$140 · 1 whale
Jordan Herrera (D)
No$233 · 1 whale

$10K+ lifetime-profit wallets · 24h net flow