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Live prediction market odds for MO-08 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

Kalshi

Kalshi

4.9
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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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MO-08 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Jason Smith (R)96¢1.04xPolymarket USChris Reichard (D)4¢25.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Jason Smith (R) about a 96.8% chance. Chris Reichard (D) follows at 2.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Traders give Jason Smith (R) about a 96.8% chance. Chris Reichard (D) follows at 2.9%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 2.0 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MO-08 House election. The election will be decided on November 3, 2026, and odds fluctuate based on candidate campaigns, polling data, and voter sentiment leading up to the election date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
JS
Jason Smith (R)
97%
Kalshi100¢
Polymarket US96¢
Polymarket96¢
Polymarket US1.04x96¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
98.0%97¢100¢0¢4¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
96.0%95¢96¢4¢5¢
PolymarketPolymarket
96.3%96¢96¢4¢4¢
CR
Chris Reichard (D)
3%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket US5¢
Polymarket4¢
Kalshi28.57x4¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
2.3%1¢4¢97¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
4.0%3¢5¢95¢97¢
PolymarketPolymarket
2.5%1¢4¢96¢99¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Candidate Spotlight

About Jason Smith (R)

Jason Smith is the current U.S. Representative for Missouri's 8th Congressional District, serving as chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. He was first elected to Congress in 2013 and has been re-elected multiple times, most recently in 2024. As chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, he holds significant influence over federal tax and economic policy.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread2.0%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Jason Smith (R)

96.8% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: MO-08 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for MO-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MO-08 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the date of the MO-08 House election?

The MO-08 House election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. This date is crucial for determining the election's outcome.

How do prediction markets influence the MO-08 House election odds?

Prediction markets reflect real-time sentiments and expectations about candidates in the MO-08 House race. Changes in polling, campaign events, and public opinion can significantly impact the odds.

What factors can affect the outcome of the MO-08 House election?

Factors influencing the MO-08 House election include candidate debates, local issues, and voter turnout. Additionally, endorsements and campaign financing can play a role in shaping voter preferences.

What does the MO-08 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest MO-08 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Jason Smith (R): 98.0¢ on Kalshi, 96.3¢ on Polymarket, 96.0¢ on Polymarket US; Chris Reichard (D): 2.3¢ on Kalshi, 2.5¢ on Polymarket, 4.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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