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Live prediction market odds for Montana Senate winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket and PredictIt.

Kalshi

Kalshi

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket / PredictIt

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Montana Senate winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Kurt Alme (R)91¢1.10xKalshiIndependent10¢10.00xKalshiAlani Bankhead (D)2¢50.00xKalshi

About This Market

Traders give Kurt Alme (R) about a 91.0% chance. Independent follows at 8.8% and Alani Bankhead (D) follows at 0.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Traders give Kurt Alme (R) about a 91.0% chance. Independent follows at 8.8% and Alani Bankhead (D) follows at 0.8%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, and PredictIt. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the Montana Senate winner for the upcoming election on November 3, 2026. The outcome will influence the balance of power in the Senate, making it a focal point for both state and national political strategies.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

4 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
Kalshi
Polymarket US
Polymarket
PredictIt
Best price
KA
Kurt Alme (R)
91%
Kalshi91¢
Polymarket US91¢
Polymarket92¢
PredictIt91¢
Kalshi1.10x91¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
90.6%91¢91¢9¢9¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
91.0%90¢91¢9¢10¢
PolymarketPolymarket
91.5%91¢92¢8¢9¢
PredictItPredictIt
90.0%89¢91¢9¢11¢
I
Independent
9%
Kalshi10¢
—
Polymarket9¢
PredictIt10¢
Kalshi10.53x10¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
9.5%9¢10¢91¢91¢
PolymarketPolymarket
8.1%8¢9¢91¢92¢
PredictItPredictIt
9.0%8¢10¢90¢92¢
AB
Alani Bankhead (D)
1%
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket US2¢
—
PredictIt1¢
Kalshi66.67x2¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
1.4%1¢2¢99¢99¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
1.0%1¢2¢98¢99¢
PolymarketPolymarket
—0¢—100¢100¢
PredictItPredictIt
—0¢1¢99¢100¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarketPredictItPredictIt

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Kurt Alme (R)

Kurt Alme is a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate from Montana. He served as U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana from 2017 to 2020 and again from March 2025 to March 2026. Alme has also held positions as Montana's Budget Director and Director of the Department of Revenue.

Smart Trade Router

$
¢

Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
United States Congress
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.5%
Platforms4
Candidates3
Leader

Kurt Alme (R)

91.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: Montana Senate winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Oracles
United States Congress
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for US Senator from Montana. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors influence the odds for the Montana Senate race?

Key factors include candidate popularity, fundraising efforts, and polling data. Additionally, national political trends and local issues can sway voter sentiment.

How do prediction markets work for political events?

Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on the likelihood of specific outcomes. Prices reflect collective beliefs about the event's probability, informed by various data points.

What is at stake in the Montana Senate election?

Control of the Senate is at stake, which can affect legislation and governance. The election outcome may also impact future political alignments and party strategies.

What does the Montana Senate winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket, PredictIt in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest Montana Senate winner odds?

The latest available prices are Kurt Alme (R): 90.6¢ on Kalshi, 91.5¢ on Polymarket, 90.0¢ on PredictIt, 91.0¢ on Polymarket US; Independent: 9.5¢ on Kalshi, 8.1¢ on Polymarket, 9.0¢ on PredictIt; Alani Bankhead (D): 1.4¢ on Kalshi, 0.1¢ on Polymarket, 1.0¢ on PredictIt, 1.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Prediction HuntPrediction.com coverage

Republican Montana Senate Odds Reach 88% Despite Bodnar ChallengeTraders moved 8 points toward the GOP after Tester's Bodnar endorsement; Kalshi sits at 85%, Predictit at 90%, with the election on November 3, 2026.Aug 3, 2026Montana Senate 2026: GOP Win Odds Drop to 80% After Bodnar SignalsBodnar out-raised both major candidates despite running as an independent. Kalshi sits at 79%, Predictit at 82%, a rare cross-platform divergence.Jul 30, 2026Montana Democrat Crashes to 2%: Bankhead's Senate Bid a Spoiler, Not a ContenderBankhead won the June 2 Democratic primary with 44% but three-way polling shows her entry flips a 50-50 Bodnar-Alme race into a Republican lead.Jun 15, 2026Montana Senate: Republican Odds Fall to 61% Despite Alme's 77% Primary WinSeth Bodnar polled at 40% in February before running a single general election ad, compressing what markets once treated as a safe Republican seat.Jun 9, 2026