Live prediction market odds for MS-03 House winner?. Compare prices across .
This market resolved on Nov 4, 2026. Michael Guest (R) was the officially declared outcome.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MS-03 House election.
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the MS-03 House election. The market resolves based on the official election results on November 3, 2026, with odds fluctuating based on candidate announcements and local polling data leading up to the election.
| Question | Result |
|---|---|
Michael Guest (R)WINNER | Yes |
Michael Chiaradio (D) | No |
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket and Polymarket US.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for MS-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
PolymarketThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Polymarket USThis market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the MS-03 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the official election results are announced.
Odds are influenced by candidate announcements, local polling data, and campaign developments as the election date approaches.
The MS-03 House winner is being tracked by Polymarket and Kalshi.
The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Venue prices are not currently available on this page. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result. This event is archived; prices shown are historical.
No historical prices are available on this page. The last available price is not necessarily the final settlement price.
