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Live prediction market odds for NJ-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket US and Polymarket.

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Claim offerLegal in USAVerified Sep 14, 2026

Kalshi / Polymarket US / Polymarket

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NJ-01 House winner?

2026-11-03

Best price · tap to trade

Donald Norcross (D)95¢1.05xPolymarket USDamon Galdo (R)6¢16.67xPolymarket US

About This Market

Traders give Donald Norcross (D) about a 95.0% chance. Damon Galdo (R) follows at 5.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Traders give Donald Norcross (D) about a 95.0% chance. Damon Galdo (R) follows at 5.4%. Compare prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Polymarket. The largest cross-platform price difference is 1.5 percentage points.

Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the NJ-01 House race. The outcome will be determined on November 3, 2026, when voters cast their ballots in this congressional election, and odds will fluctuate based on campaign developments and polling data leading up to the date.

Price History

Multi-Platform Probabilities
Loading 30D data…

Live Markets

3 platforms
OutcomeConsensus
KalshiKalshi
Polymarket USPolymarket US
PolymarketPolymarket
Best price
DN
Donald Norcross (D)
95%
Kalshi97¢
Polymarket US95¢
Polymarket95¢
Polymarket US1.05x95¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
95.6%94¢97¢3¢6¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
95.0%94¢95¢5¢6¢
PolymarketPolymarket
94.5%94¢95¢5¢6¢
DG
Damon Galdo (R)
5%
Kalshi8¢
Polymarket US6¢
Polymarket5¢
Polymarket US16.67x6¢
PlatformImplied %Yes bid / askNo bid / ask
KalshiKalshi
5.6%3¢8¢92¢97¢
Polymarket USPolymarket US
6.0%5¢6¢94¢95¢
PolymarketPolymarket
4.5%4¢5¢95¢96¢
KalshiKalshiPolymarket USPolymarket USPolymarketPolymarket

Best price among US-regulated venues.

Candidate Spotlight

About Donald Norcross (D)

Donald Norcross is the U.S. Representative for New Jersey's 1st congressional district. He has served in this role since 2014, following his tenure in the New Jersey State Senate. Norcross is a member of the House Armed Services Committee and the Education and Workforce Committee.

About Damon Galdo (R)

Damon Galdo is a construction superintendent and conservative podcast host from West Deptford, New Jersey. He is the Republican nominee for New Jersey's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House elections. Galdo has previously run for this seat in 2022 and 2024, focusing on affordability, border security, and election integrity.

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Resolution Oracles

KalshiKalshi
Kalshi Rules
Read Full Market Rulebooks
Stats
Spread1.5%
Platforms3
Candidates2
Leader

Donald Norcross (D)

95.0% avg

Market RulebooksOfficial settlement criteria and edge cases

Market Rulebook: NJ-01 House winner?

Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket US.

KalshiKalshi
Primary Rule

If the House member sworn in for NJ-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Edge Cases

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Resolution Oracles
Kalshi Rules
Polymarket USPolymarket US
Primary Rule

This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 midterm election for the NJ-01 congressional district seat. Outcome sourced from relevant government authorities. The determination of the winner includes any runoff, tiebreak, or other relevant procedure under the applicable rules of the relevant jurisdiction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the resolution date for the NJ-01 House winner market?

The market resolves on November 3, 2026, when the election takes place.

Which platforms are tracking the NJ-01 House winner?

Polymarket and Kalshi are the platforms currently tracking this event.

What factors influence the odds for the NJ-01 House race?

Odds will change based on campaign activities, polling results, and voter sentiment as the election date approaches.

What does the NJ-01 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket US, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NJ-01 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Donald Norcross (D): 95.6¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket, 95.0¢ on Polymarket US; Damon Galdo (R): 5.6¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket, 6.0¢ on Polymarket US. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Learn more:How to Read Prediction Market PricesCompare Fees Before You TradeNew to Polymarket?

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Norcross Market Odds Fall 9 Points Despite 99% Forecast ConsensusCall the Map rates Norcross at 99.3% with a D+28.4 margin, but his prediction market price fell from 96% to 88% in three days, creating an 11-point model-market gap.Sep 24, 2026