What is the significance of the NJ-03 House race?

The NJ-03 House race is crucial for determining party control in the U.S. House of Representatives. The election will take place on November 3, 2026.

How do prediction markets assess the NJ-03 House winner?

Prediction markets assess the NJ-03 House winner by aggregating bets on various candidates and outcomes. Odds change based on polling data, candidate activities, and public sentiment leading up to the election.

When do the odds for the NJ-03 House race typically change?

Odds for the NJ-03 House race typically change in response to candidate announcements, debates, and polling results. Market participants react to news and events that may influence voter preferences.

What does the NJ-03 House winner prediction market track?

The outcomes listed above show how traders are pricing this question. Compare outcome prices from Kalshi, Polymarket in one place. Each price reflects the market’s implied probability, not a guaranteed result.

What are the latest NJ-03 House winner odds?

The latest available prices are Herb Conaway (D): 95.0¢ on Kalshi, 94.5¢ on Polymarket; Michael McGuire (R): 4.6¢ on Kalshi, 4.5¢ on Polymarket. Prices are quoted in cents per $1 share. Check the venue for executable prices and available liquidity.

Why do NJ-03 House winner odds vary across prediction markets?

The largest price difference shown across venues is 0.5 percentage points. Venues have different traders, liquidity and fees, so their prices can differ. A price gap alone does not establish an executable arbitrage opportunity; compare settlement rules and the actual buy and sell prices.

How do NJ-03 House winner prediction market payouts work?

For example, Herb Conaway (D) at 94.8¢ implies about a 94.8% chance. For a standard $1 contract, a share pays $1 if its outcome settles as correct and $0 if it settles as incorrect. A winning share bought at 40¢ earns 60¢ before fees. Check each venue’s settlement rules, fees and eligibility before trading.